Alex Keeney and Domer break down fake polls, surprise longshot wins, Darline Graham’s South Carolina stumble, and the election-market signals shaping September’s midterm trading wave. They also tackle America’s $40 trillion debt milestone, shutdown and downgrade odds, White House personnel markets, and the week’s biggest prediction-market hits and misses.
Today on the show: fake polls are back, longshots are alive, Darline Graham hits a rough patch in South Carolina, U.S. debt tops $40 trillion, and prediction market traders have plenty to sort through before September’s midterm trading wave.
Alex Keeney is joined by Domer to break down the latest action across politics, elections, debt markets, and Polymarket. The show starts with small talk on White House press secretary markets, Scott Jennings, Anna Kelly, Natalie Harp, Alina Habba, fake Dan Sullivan, and encouraging signs for Mary Peltola.
Then: fake polls. After another longshot hit in Florida — with Angie Nixon, not Alexander Vindman, becoming the Democratic nominee for Senate — Alex and Domer ask whether “longshot summer” is now the defining feature of political trading. If traders are overbonding favorites, are cheap longshots the best answer?
Next: South Carolina. Darline Graham’s odds have fallen after a rough debate moment on U.S.–Taiwan relations raised new questions about her experience in the Senate runoff to replace Lindsey Graham. Ralph Norman is gaining attention, Graham’s market has dropped from heavy favorite territory, and traders are asking whether this is a buy-the-dip moment or the start of a real collapse.
The show also turns to America’s $40 trillion debt milestone. With long-term borrowing costs in focus and the Treasury stepping in with buyback plans, Alex and Domer go long or short on shutdown odds, debt downgrade markets, and whether Trump can reduce the deficit this year.
Plus: Oracle of the Week, Dunce of the Week, Cory Mills tips, and Rick Wilson discourse.
Topics include:
Fake polls in election markets
Prediction market scams and bad data
Golden age of longshots
Angie Nixon Florida Senate upset
Alexander Vindman and Resistance politics
Overbonding favorites
Cheap longshot trades
South Carolina Senate runoff
Darline Graham vs. Ralph Norman
Darline Graham debate fallout
U.S.–Taiwan relations controversy
Lindsey Graham replacement race
MAGA Kiwi Club and Darline bonds
White House press secretary markets
Scott Jennings odds
Anna Kelly, Natalie Harp, and Alina Habba
Fake Dan Sullivan week
Mary Peltola market signals
U.S. debt hits $40 trillion
Government shutdown odds
U.S. debt downgrade markets
Trump deficit reduction market
Treasury buybacks and borrowing costs
Oracle of the Week
Juliegrace Brufke and Cory Mills
Dunce of the Week
Rick Wilson
For more prediction market news and analysis, visit eventual.news.
Sponsored segment:
Includes a Polymarket ad read. Polymarket US is back in the United States at polymarket.us. Get ready for major midterm trading in September.
Hey, welcome to Eventual, your OG Prediction Market Podcast. I'm Alex Keeney and we've got Domer in the co-host chair today. We also have an awesome show for you. So first of all, you guys have been seeing all of the fake polls out here, but here's a contrarian perspective on why that might benefit traders. Then we've got Darlene Graham in South Carolina facing the Ralph Norman conquest after a big gath at a debate. That election is coming up next week, and I know a lot of you have bonded her at a very high price. Finally, what's going on with all these young ladies hanging around Donald Trump and who will be his next press secretary? We've got some tactical intel for you on that too. But before we get started, just go check out Polymarket. They are back in the US. It is polymarket.us. They'll give you a little candy to sign up for the account.
And this is our reminder to you that their data powers this show. We support them. We like what they do for traders. And again, they support us here at Eventual. Finally, a quick note about the legal trade safe out there, guys. This show is not financial advice. The people who come on this show oftentimes hold positions and they might change them without telling you. So don't take this as strict financial instruction. This is an informational show. And then finally, if you use polymarket.us, remember it's 18 and over only. There are restrictions and eligibility requirements. Trading is risky, 100% loss can occur, and it's not available in all US jurisdictions. So see polymarket.com/tos for more information. And now we are going to roll. Domer, you look like you're in vacay mode. You're still making time for this show?
I am. Yeah. Yeah. It's down the road.
A party shirt. We like a party shirt. None of these neutral colors.
Exactly. Yeah. Party mode as well.
Speaking of people who have a reason to party, how about fake Dan Sullivan and Mary Paltola this week in Alaska? We popping champagne for them already?
Well, who's to say he's not the real Dan Sullivan?
That's true. And if Paltola wins this race, I feel like she got some encouraging numbers. If she flips that seat to Democrats, fake Dan Sullivan might actually be the hero here. He might get the Dan Sullivan crown.
Yes. And then we hear the Democrats would complain about the green candidates for a long time. Ralph Nader, maybe we finally hear the conservatives complaining about fake candidates.
Yeah. Yeah. So big theme this week I think is starting to fill in the picture of what this midterm election is actually going to look like. We're leading right now with an election in Alaska that's very important to that, but props to fake Dan Sullivan. And we'll see if Mary Pollotola can keep that democratic edge. Are you also following the. I feel like there's several layers of weird sexual palace intrigue in the White House right now. And one of them is this Natalie Harbade, but the other is who will replace Caroline Levitt? Are you trading in here or are you just eating popcorn the way I am?
I've nibbled in the press secretary a little bit. I also feel like this is one where people that I know in real life are like, "Oh, who's going to be the next press secretary?" There's far more interest in terms of regular people than I would've expected. But yeah, I have a small little bit of Scott Jennings. I think if he wants the role, he could do it.
Yeah. Yeah. Well, I mean, but do you worry that Trump doesn't want to give Scott Jennings the job because then he won't be able to watch him on CNN anymore?
Yeah, maybe. I mean, that's one thing that he. Well, does he watch CNN is the first question. There you
Go.
But yeah, I mean, Scott Jennings kind of matches the model that he used in his first term, which was a little bit of an abrasive male, whereas now he has kind of switched a little bit to women, but we'll see if he switches back.
Well, it is sort of interesting. So Scott Jennings is the favorite to be the next White House press secretary. He's trading at 37 cents the last time I checked on polymarket.com. And it is like you pointed out, we have pointed out that there is a very female, very attractive sort of female vibe that Trump has surrounded himself in this term. But also, is there a point at which Susie Wiles does the HR thing and it's just like, sorry, you have to hire someone that John Ossoff can't give a speech about weird sexual tension about you need to hire the aging gray-haired man for this job. You think that that could play maybe?
I mean, so Trump does so much weird stuff that I think they need someone who's capable of spinning things in a way that makes a little bit of sense. So they're going to need someone who's smart on his feet like Scott Jennings are. He says some crazy stuff, but by and large, he's pretty good at spinning what's happening into something that sounds nice.
So Card's on the table. I used to work with Scott, but I know nothing about this, but I do want to take the opportunity to say that I'm cool, but I have no idea what is going to happen with this. But look, I think that seems like a smart money play. Everyone in the Republican movement loves Scott Jennings for his ability to give it as good as he can take it. So I might go ahead and follow you on that. I think 37 cents, that probably should be closer to 50, 55, somewhere up there. There's probably some value in that trade.
Yeah, really hard to say. I got in at 15 and maybe I might look to sell if he gets closer to 50 though.
Yeah. Yeah. Okay. All right. So let's get on the program here. So another big story we got this week is a joke that we make a lot on this show, which is are polls fake? The answer is that in some instances, polls are in fact fake. I think the relevant part to traders though isn't that they should pay closer attention to data because everyone already knows that already. It's the meta discourse here about, well, do we have an epidemic of overbonding? Because these polls during the primaries have put a lot of traders into very expensive, like this week it was, what's his name? Alexander Vindman in Florida. Of course he's going to be the Democratic nominee. I'll buy those 95 cents shares. And then all of a sudden you're bouncing rent checks and your wife is leaving you and your kids are getting kicked out of college for not having any money because you over bonded that.
And we've seen that a few times here. So do you want to declare this like the golden age of long shots or do you want to throw some water on this take?
I mean, people bonding bad stuff has been a symptom or a disease for many years now. So that's not new. I would say there's a lot more money in it and there's a lot more frequency of what people are trading on. So for instance, it seems like every single week this primary season for at least the past few weeks, someone that's been trading at five cents has ended up winning the nomination for their party. But yeah, I mean it's crazy what's happening right now.
Yeah, yeah, yeah. But we're trend chasers. And are we declaring the 90 cent bond dead? Are you willing to put the dun chain on the 90%, 92% trade?
No, no. I mean, so I'm very big into bonding.This is something that I think about a lot, but not only bonding, but also taking long shots and stuff. And it really comes down to the quality of information. You cannot be bonding stuff if you have low quality information or sparse information. You can't be bonding things based on vibes because so often we just assume things that are simply not true. By the same token, if you have a lot of high information data and you're extremely confident and you've tested your hypotheses, that's an area where you can and should be bonding. So I mean, it's definitely a balancing act in terms of what you should be doing.
And I suppose we've been talking about polling misses that polling gurus say are totally within the bounds of explanation in some of these primaries, but the dynamics of a Republican versus Democratic election are very different from the dynamics of which wing of the Democratic Party will prevail in a civil war and a low turnout, whatever, right?
Absolutely true. Yeah, because there's a baseline by which a Republican, if they're in South Carolina, the Republican is very unlikely to, even if they're the worst candidate in the world, to get less than 45% of the vote, for instance. But in a primary, it's much more chaotic because then you have kind of tribalism within the party and it's hard to predict. And they're also lower turnout, so you have higher variance. So yeah, there's a lot of factors that come into play there.
It's such a bummer because sometimes trading, especially on elections is like a season arc or something like that. And if you spotted early in this season that this was going to be a theme, you could be buying a sports car right now. But for everyone else, it's just another card to put in your back pocket for the next primary season to see if this trend still holds. But there's really no guarantee that it will. So cheers to those of you who identified this trend early and capitalized on it because I think your point is well taken that the general election in the midterms will not have the same very opaque dynamics as intro party feuds. I think this is our cue to talk about kind of, is this the last and greatest intro party feud before we get to the midterm elections? Darlene Graham versus Ralph Norman in South Carolina.
Are we at the end of the line here?
It might be. And this is one of my favorite races this year. I'm really getting involved in this one. Yeah.
You have never been more monotone telling me you're excited than you just were right there.
Well, I mean, because I'm not sure if I'm happy, excited or sad excited. We'll find out in five or six days or whatever it is.
These are the ones you love. These are the ones that you love. And it's very hard to explain this to people who don't trade, but you love the really hard questions that really engage you and put you at odds with other smart traders. These are the ones we love.
Yeah, for sure.
Okay. So I will tee up the story that a lot of our audience is already following, but let's all get in the same place. So Alec Hernandez over at Politico writes, this is the day after the South Carolina debate, which we watched so that you don't have to. He writes a story slogged, "Woefully unprepared. Graham critic sees on her foreign policy misstep. South Carolina Senator Darlene Graham has given opponents fresh ammunition to attack her on her biggest vulnerability, her inexperience." So this is how we get to this sort of, I don't really know what Taiwan is meme, and this is how we get to a sort of national discourse about should Lindsey Graham's sister just be able to walk into the Senate with Donald Trump's endorsement. And the market reaction has been dismal. Absolutely dismal. So since that August 17th debate, Graham has fallen from an 89 cent favorite on polymarket.com to, as of when we pushed the record button, she was down to 70 cents.
So this is pretty calamitous if you are some of the people holding those 85 cent shares of Darlene Graham to be the next South Carolina Republican nominee. So Domer, 89 cents to 70 cents. You just got figuratively hammered. Is this a buy or a sell or a hold if you are hanging onto those 70 cent Darlene Graham shares?
Well, so I'm on the other side of it. I have almost 100,000 shares, maybe even more than 100,000 shares of Ralph Norman, maybe 150, whatever it is. I have a lot of shares of Ralph Norman right now. And that's hard. It's hard to figure out when you should catch a falling knife or sell a falling knife or whatever it is that you're trying to do. And the other thing that's interesting here is quantitatively, she should be winning. She has far more money, support, Trump. She got an endorsement from the guy who came in third place. There's a lot of things in her favor, but qualitatively, it's trying to price how this debate fallout is going to play out among the state. Okay, even if we assume that this is the worst gap in the world, how far is it going to spread amongst the electorate?
How much are they going to care? All of these things are really, really, really hard to figure out on the fly. But I do tend to think that she's still overpriced and that people are anchored to just the past and that we're in a new world where people are going to view everything she says in a very different way. And she may do very badly with late deciders.
I take caution when I see Nikki Haley tweeting mean things about Darlene Graham. I'm always looking for the signal that the people who organize volunteers and get people excited about elections are not excited about a candidate. But the weird thing that I run into is that Ralph Norman, again and again and again, you see this in politics, seems like the wrong candidate at the right time. He's just so old and so politiciany. And if Russell Frye had come through that primary or someone else, I would think it might be different. But I'm very skeptical that Ralph Norman is the right candidate to seize on a vulnerability.
Yeah. And there's so many interstate politics here that's happening because not only, it's a very red state, obviously, a very Trump supporting state, but then also Nikki Haley and then the guy who came in fourth place, the former governor, I'm forgett his name. Mark Sanford. Exactly. Mark Sanford. Low country, gotcha. So literally the two primary Trump opponents, Sanford and Nikki Haley, are both from an extremely red state and they both would kind of lean into Norman. But whereas Norman has also taken some very extreme pro-Trump stances. So it's all so complex here and there's a lot of countervailing things that are happening and it's really hard to figure it out.
I mean, I tend to think that most of this people don't really care about, but the way. Wait, you tell me if you disagree, but the way that the market will work is I feel like you'll see more and more weak hands get progressively weaker between now and Tuesday. And that if you want to bet on Darlene Graham, you can probably get a better price between now and then. Maybe the exception is if there's a post and courier poll or something that puts a foundation under her. But I feel like now is maybe not the time to buy Darlene Graham shares maybe.
Yeah, I could see that. We also have zero polls. There has been not a single poll. The only poll that was released was a Norman internal where obviously he had himself winning. But yeah, people are kind of bumbling around in the dark. So if and when we get a poll finally, the price could move quite a lot in the direction of the polling favorite.
Yeah. Yeah. And I did see that I think she bested Norman by eight points in the first round. That's not an enormous amount in a weird runoff. Not at all. That can go quick. Finally, let's bring the human element into this a little bit. I have heard, I'm a big rumors guy. I've heard that the MAGA Kiwi Club is betting the farm on Darlene Graham. How do you feel about being matched up against the House of Kiwi?
Not at all intimidated. It goes back because those are very quantitative oriented people. And I'm sure the case for Darlene Graham is extremely strong from a numbers point of view. But I think there are other factors here which kind of excite me as a trader that I'm happy to take a risk on Norman prevailing. And then we'll see. Maybe it won't work out, maybe it won't. But yeah, it'll be fun.
Okay. All right. Well, you're a little braver than I am, but I might see if I can get a good price on Darlene Graham closer to the election, but I feel like I've missed this trade. Well, I don't know. I think Graham no Norman yes was a smart move and I've sort of gotten out of sync with the market ever since then. Okay. Well, let's talk about things that are less interesting than my inner monologue. The United States national debt. I've been hearing for my entire life that this is going to be the big story, but it is a moderate size story this week. Maybe we can make it a big story. So I will throw it to the Wall Street Journal. San Goldfarb at the Wall Street Journal writes, "The US debt just topped $40 trillion. How we got here? The US has hit a new borrowing milestone while debt as a share of GDP nears levels last seen during World War II.
In recent days, rising long-term government borrowing costs and a sudden reversal Wednesday after the Treasury announced plans to buy back more long-term debt have underscored the stakes." So there's a lot of stories that we talk about here that are coming into play, interest rates, the fancies of Congress and Trump. So my idea to make this interesting is just to rip through a couple trades that have something to do with it. And we can make a judgment about whether or not the American people or Donald Trump or Congress actually cares about the national debt getting to World War levels. So you want to buckle up with me here?
Yeah, let's do it.
All right. Well, so in the past when there's been just jaw dropping bad fiscal information, the Republicans have either threatened to shut down Congress or shut down Congress. So polymarket.com lists government shutdown on October 1st at a 15 cent probability. So this market has not budged an inch really. Is there any reason to be long a government shutdown at 15 cents?
I'm not sure there is, but I also don't think that's something that you want to be bonding. Chaos within the House Republicans can always sprout up at any second. So I would say don't do anything with that unless you've researched it very extensively.
I did see that the House passed its version of a CR with 20 votes to spare. So Trump could. To me, this is more a, will Trump have ICE shoot people type question. Trump kind of needs to blow it at this point, I think. But Trump risk is, I suppose, worth 15 cents.
Yeah. I mean, there's a lot of chaos in the world. Iran, otherwise domestic. Yeah. So bad stuff can definitely happen. Yeah.
Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. Well, I might get in here. Another US
Debt - What side are you getting in? 15 cents? Yeah,
No, I might take the 85 cent trade here.
You'll thank me later, Domer says. All right. Another. That does just feel like one of those trades where you can galaxy brain your way into the most obvious atom bomb exploding on your P&L if and when it does. If and when Anna Paulina Luna sends that tweet. If and when Hakeem Jeffries does that press her. Okay. Well, I'm going to blush. Okay. I've got another US debt downgrade by 2027. So we'll like Fitch under standard and poor say that the US debt has gotten shittier. That is also trading at 15 cents. Long or short, 15 cents that the US debt will be downgraded by the end of the year?
Yeah, probably shorter. I mean, 15 cents is high. It's a very, very rare occurrence. I think it happens maybe every five years or something like that. So over any five-month time period, it's going to be very, very small. But as we just talked about, there's a lot of chaos in Iran. So I mean, you got to be very careful bonding something like that because if we're involved in some sort of quagmire, then that's the exact. And we're involved in a quagmire overseas and then domestically we're having a lot of trouble passing funding bills. That's the exact recipe that they would use in order to downgrade the US. So my rough pricing would be five to 10 cents.
Yeah, yeah. So I think this is really more of a, will an Iranian ballistic missile hit Fort Knox question? To me, I mean, usually you get a fair amount of warning. If you're the type of person who wants to monitor what Moody's and S&P write, you can get a decent warning that this might be coming. To my knowledge, no such warning has been issued. So I think this is actually a pretty safe buy at an 85 cent no. And then last but not least, Trump to reduce the deficit this year. So are we so freaked out about $40 trillion of debt that anything will be done at all about it? This is a one cent trade that Trump will reduce the deficit this year. I think no trade is probably the best trade here.
We are decades removed from the Ross Perot commercials where he's getting on and explaining how bad the debt is to everyday Americans. I do not think this is a high priority for Trump. I would be selling one cent if you told me two years from now that he would be potentially reducing the deficit. Yeah, it's not going to happen.
Yeah, yeah, yeah. Time value of money here for those of you who are bonders. I don't think the 99 cents is worth it. Okay. All right. Well, let's move on then to our Oracle of the Week and our Dunts of the Week. I'm glad that I get to be the good copier. This is where we tip our hat to people who provided great information, where we recognize market moving intelligence, wherever it may be. And I think in your case, I think you're trying to communicate a different message, right?
Slightly, yeah. Slightly different vibes on my message. Yeah.
Tons of the week. All right. Well, you know what? I will start with honey and you can move with vinegar. My oracle of the week is a Substack reporter, former Axios reporter that you should be following named Julie Grace Brufke. And Brian Golden and I were on this show yesterday trying to make heads or tails of what's going to happen to Corey Mills. Will he survive his primary? Will he not? It was like the pricing was weird. The information was incomplete. And an hour before polls closed, Julie Grace posted this tweet about how Corey Mills had missed two consecutive appearances on Fox News. And it was like light bulb. He knows he's losing. So really important piece of signal that was buried out there in Twitter coming from Julie Grace. You should go subscribe to her substack. I don't remember what it's called, but we have gathered wonderful intelligence.
So Oracle of the Week, Julie Grace Brufge. I leave it to you now.
Nice. Yeah, Dunce of the Week, we'll go with Rick Wilson, who right after Hong lost in Wisconsin, obviously a huge upset there that the more moderate candidate won. He wrote this big dissertation about how this will not happen in Florida. And Rick Wilson is from Florida. And he gave chapter and verse, et cetera, et cetera, why Vindman, sorry, Vinman was going to win the Senate primary as opposed to Angie Nixon, the DSA Canada. And he went chapter and verse. Vindman's going to win military, et cetera, Jewish issues. And okay, not only did Vindman lose, but he lost by 12 points. And it proved yet again that Rick Wilson probably doesn't know much about political consulting anymore, probably doesn't know much about Florida politics, and he doesn't really have his finger on the pulse. Rick Wilson is somebody who rose to fame with John McCain and then has kind of clung onto as kind of a political influencer with the Lincoln group or whatever it was.
Yeah,
Lincoln Project.
Yeah. He's reaped tens of millions of dollars from people just proclaiming political things left, right and center. So not the sharpest tool in the shed, not someone you should be listening to. Be very wary of people with large number of followers making political pronouncements is what I'll say. Ooh,
Yeah. Yeah. Leading indicator of the Grift Industrial Complex. It's that mid-sized creator. It's that eight to 20,000 follower account who's a reporter in a big city. That's your guy.
There's a lot of wisdom. That might've been the smartest thing we've said since we've started filming. Yes, that's the sweet spot right there.
Although shout out Ross Barkin, who used to be the plug in New York politics. Apparently his book just got pulled for plagiarism, so maybe nothing is sacred anymore.
Oh no, that's dark. Yeah.
Dark indeed. All right. Well, I'll sneak preview some of the stuff we've got coming up. We've got Ankish Kadari, the legal analyst who you might recognize from Politico, the New York Times, MS Now. He will be appearing on the show next week. Ben Schreckinger, a great investigative reporter. And of course, Zoltar, one of the absolute OGs. So we've got a lot of killer content that's going to be coming through our feed. But for the Thursday livestream, Domer, it's just you and me. So I think that's the end of the show.
Nice. Yeah, another great show.
Thank you for joining. And thank you to the people who produced this show. This show was produced by Alex Osdorian and executive produced by Matt Talis. And please remember, we have a newsletter that goes out twice a week and you can subscribe to it for free at eventual.news/subscribe. So again, eventual.news/subscribe. Just sign up so you don't miss anything. You get lots of content that doesn't come out on the show and it'll be worth your time. So on behalf of Eventual, I'm Alex Keeney, a.k.a. Keen Dog, and it's been great to hang out with you today. Thank