Alex Keeney and Brian Golden break down the latest prediction market action, including Marco Rubio vs. AOC in the 2028 nomination markets, inflation and Fed rate odds, the Lakers sale, and the Clacton by-election. Lakshya Jain and Domer join for a deep dive into a wild primary night and debate the strengths and weaknesses of polls, election models, Kalshi, and Polymarket as forecasting tools. Plus, the crew tackles key Senate and House races, gerrymandering, scandal markets, and what prediction markets can—and can’t—tell us about elections.
Welcome to Eventual, your OG prediction market show. Today: Marco Rubio vs. AOC in the 2028 nomination markets, inflation and Fed rate odds, the Lakers sale, the Clacton by-election, and a special election forecasting conversation with Lakshya Jain and Domer.
Alex Keeney and Domer break down the latest market action, including how traders are reacting to inflation data, what to watch in Clacton, and why Rubio’s and AOC’s 2028 odds are moving. Then, in Would You Rather?, they compare holding Rubio in the Republican nominee market with AOC in the Democratic nominee market.
Lakshya Jain of The Argument and Split Ticket joins Domer to unpack a wild primary night in Wisconsin, South Carolina, and Minnesota. They discuss polls vs. prediction markets, Kalshi and Polymarket, election models, market overreactions to early vote drops, and when qualitative information can outperform quantitative forecasts.
Plus: Nate Silver’s new model, House and Senate forecasts, gerrymandering, jungle primaries, key races and scandal markets, Democratic socialists vs. moderates, and the strengths and limits of prediction markets as forecasting tools.