Alex Keeney and Pratik Chougule examine an unusually open US Open field, volatile Fed-rate markets, Mike Johnson and congressional trades, and the Ninth Circuit setback that could threaten sports and election contracts on prediction-market platforms. Legal analyst Ankush Khardori then assesses Polymarket’s odds on Todd Blanche facing professional discipline, Trump opponents such as John Brennan or Anthony Fauci being arrested, and another wave of presidential pardons—arguing that bar action is highly unlikely this year while prosecutions and pardons remain shaped by timing, venue, and Trump’s personal priorities.
Trump’s revenge tour, pardon markets, political arrest markets, Todd Blanche’s future at the Justice Department, and new legal trouble for prediction markets after a major Ninth Circuit fight involving Kalshi. Alex Keeney breaks down a short but packed episode covering the U.S. Open, Fed rate markets, Kevin Warsh’s Jackson Hole speech, Congress returning to Washington, and the court decision that could shape the future of sports and political event contracts. First: Fed rates. Markets now show rising odds of a rate hike this year, with September in focus after Kevin Warsh’s speech flipped expectations. Alex looks at the September Fed decision market, dumb money on both sides of the trade, and why traders are split heading into the Sept. 15 meeting. Then: legal problems for prediction markets. Mick Bransfield’s reporting at Eventual explains why traders have been watching the Ninth Circuit Court of Appeals for clues about Kalshi, Nevada, sports trading, and the future of event contracts. Are we still in the golden age of prediction market trading, or is the legal environment starting to tighten? The main segment features Ankush Khardori, author of Open File, former federal prosecutor, legal analyst, and New York Times opinion contributor. Ankush joins Alex and Pratik Chougule to discuss Todd Blanche, Trump’s Justice Department, the New York bar market, and whether Blanche could ever face suspension or disbarment. The conversation then turns to Trump’s political enemies and “revenge tour” markets: John Brennan, Anthony Fauci, James Comey, Adam Schiff, James Clapper, Letitia James, Loretta Lynch, Susan Rice, and others. Ankush explains how venue, grand juries, DOJ incentives, timing, and presidential pressure all matter when thinking about whether political investigations could turn into actual arrests or indictments. Finally, the show looks at Trump’s pardon pen. Trump has already shown a willingness to use pardons aggressively, but can traders forecast them? Ankush discusses the informal pardon economy, political connections, white-collar crime, January 6 pardons, Derek Chauvin, Maduro, and why Trump’s pardon process may be unusually ad hoc. Topics include: Trump revenge tour markets Who will be arrested before 2027? Trump pardon markets Todd Blanche attorney general Todd Blanche disbarment market New York bar discipline Justice Department independence Trump and the DOJ Political prosecutions and legal norms John Brennan market Anthony Fauci market James Comey market Adam Schiff market James Clapper market Letitia James market Loretta Lynch and Susan Rice Grand juries and venue shopping Florida investigations DC grand juries John Bolton classified documents case Trump pardon strategy January 6 pardons Derek Chauvin pardon market Maduro pardon market Prediction market legal trouble Kalshi Ninth Circuit case Nevada sports trading ban Political event contract regulation Fed rate hike markets Kevin Warsh Jackson Hole speech September Fed decision Congress returns to Washington Guest: Ankush Khardori — author of Open File Hosted by: Alex Keeney Pratik Chougule For more prediction market news and analysis, visit eventual.news. Sponsored segment: Includes a Polymarket ad read. Polymarket US is back in the United States at polymarket.us. Disclaimer: Eventual is for informational and entertainment purposes only. Nothing in this episode should be understood as financial, legal, investment, gambling, or trading advice. Hosts, guests, and viewers may hold positions in prediction markets and may change those positions at any time. Nothing here is an endorsement to buy, sell, or trade any market. Trade safe and follow all applicable laws and platform rules in your jurisdiction. If using Polymarket US, remember it is 18+ only. Restrictions and eligibility requirements apply. Trading is risky, and 100% loss can occur. Not available in all jurisdictions. See polymarket.com/tos for more information. Some featured markets discussed may not be available to U.S. users and are included for informational purposes only. Subscribe to Eventual for prediction market news, Polymarket analysis, Kalshi coverage, legal markets, political trading, election odds, Fed markets, and probabilistic thinking.