Alex Keeney and Domer break down the fallout from the Federal Reserve’s 25-basis-point rate hike, what could come next for rates, the shifting 2026 midterm landscape, and whether the stalled CLARITY Act has another path through Congress, before William Keydjani joins to handicap Labour’s defense of Holborn and St Pancras against a growing Green Party challenge. Verdad Capital founder Dan Rasmussen then explains how Wall Street can use prediction markets as real-time forecasting tools, what traders can learn from base rates, value, momentum and market overreactions, and why institutional investors may still be leaving prediction-market alpha on the table.
Alex Keeney and Domer run through the biggest market movers heading into the midterms, including the latest Federal Reserve trade, shifting Senate-control markets, the CLARITY Act setback, AI politics, energy prices, and the people who could have an outsized impact on markets over the final stretch of the campaign.
They also check in on one of the stranger elections across the Atlantic: the Holborn and St Pancras by-election, where Labour faces an increasingly interesting challenge from the Greens.
Then Dan Rasmussen, founder and managing partner of Verdad Advisers and author of The Humble Investor, joins the show to connect the worlds of traditional finance and prediction markets. Rasmussen explains why investors should think of markets as forecasting machines, what prediction traders can learn from value investing and momentum, why consensus trades can become dangerous, and where prediction markets may actually offer Wall Street an informational edge. Rasmussen is the founder and managing partner of Verdad Advisers, which manages more than $1 billion across multiple asset classes.
Alex also puts Dan through a prediction-market lightning round covering recession risk, Anthropic, an OpenAI IPO, SaaS, Federal Reserve policy, and—most importantly—which prediction-market trading-club name could survive a meeting with institutional investors.
On today’s show:
Federal Reserve • 2026 midterms • Senate control • CLARITY Act • AI regulation • Kevin Warsh • prediction markets • Polymarket • energy prices • Holborn and St Pancras • Dan Rasmussen • Verdad Advisers • The Humble Investor • value investing • momentum • forecasting • Wall Street • Anthropic • OpenAI
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Sponsored segment:
Includes a Polymarket ad read. Polymarket US is back in the United States at polymarket.us.
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