Eventual takes a victory lap on several House races before turning to Trump’s “burn book,” where Ken Paxton looks increasingly vulnerable while Pete Hegseth and Dario Amodei appear safer. Alex and Pratik also read the tea leaves on AOC, Nithya Raman and Trump’s AI summit for clues about 2028, Los Angeles politics and AI policy. Ian Bezek joins to argue that Brazil’s election market may be mispricing Lula, while flagging a potential opportunity in Argentina’s 2027 presidential race. The show closes with trades around Oura’s delayed IPO, France’s budget fight and other prediction-market mispricings.
The midterm battlefield is expanding, and some of the races traders have been watching for months are suddenly showing up on everyone else’s radar. We start with a victory lap through IA-01, PA-07 and the Texas House battlefield, then ask the more important question: are traders already getting too aggressive on the Democratic side?
Then it’s Signal or Noise. AOC wears a Buffalo Bills hoodie. Arnold Schwarzenegger meets Nithya Raman. And the White House AI seating chart becomes its own prediction market signal, with Jensen Huang close to Trump and Dario Amodei farther down the table.
Next: Trump’s Burn Book. We dig into Ken Paxton, the market on Pete Hegseth leaving the Pentagon, the latest military leadership shakeup, and the increasingly strange relationship between Trump and Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei. Hegseth is preparing another major reduction in senior military leadership, while Trump and Amodei have also recently moved from public tension to direct meetings.
For Nerd Pick of the Week, Pratik heads to the French budget while Alex looks at the market around the Oura IPO.
Then Ian Bezek joins Eventual for a deep dive into Brazil. Prediction markets have Flávio Bolsonaro and Lula in a close presidential race, so we talk runoff odds, Trump’s role in Brazilian politics, polling, and whether the broader political shift across Latin America is about ideology or simply voters turning against incumbents. Recent Brazilian polling has also shown an extremely tight Lula–Bolsonaro contest. UOL Notícias
Plus: Anthropic, Oura, the U.S. IPO market and what traders should be watching next.
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