Alex Keeney and Doug Campbell unpack surging bond yields, Iran-driven inflation risk and why another Federal Reserve hike may still be underpriced. They also examine Trump’s increasingly bullish posture toward AI and the prediction markets forming around regulation, safety legislation and government involvement in the industry. Jim Swift joins to explain why Ohio’s Senate and governor races have become genuinely competitive, with candidate quality, tariffs and data-center politics reshaping the map. Finally, statistician Harry Crane breaks down the Kelly criterion, bankroll management and why knowing how uncertain your edge is may matter more than knowing the edge itself.
Bonds are screaming.
Doug Campbell connects surging Treasury yields to Iran, inflation and the AI investment boom—and explains why another Fed hike may still be underpriced.
Trump goes all-in on AI.
The White House remains firmly pro-growth on artificial intelligence, opening trades around regulation, AI safety legislation and even potential government investment in the sector.
Are the Ohio polls real?
Jim Swift breaks down why Sherrod Brown and Amy Acton are competitive, how tariffs and data centers are hurting Republicans, and which Ohio House seats could actually flip.
Stop betting like you know your edge.
Statistician Harry Crane explains why traders should size positions conservatively, test strategies with real money and focus on surviving when their assumptions are wrong.
Bond markets are moving, traders are backing away from an October Fed hike, and Trump has some new thoughts about AI. Alex Keeney and Doug Campbell break down what the bond selloff means for prediction markets, whether AI is helping hold up the economy, the latest U.S.–China AI trades, and some increasingly strange markets around Trump’s second term.
Then Jim Swift joins Eventual to go deep on Ohio. We look at Vivek Ramaswamy vs. Amy Acton, the Senate fight involving Sherrod Brown, and some surprisingly competitive House races in OH-01, OH-07 and OH-09. Are Democrats genuinely gaining ground in Ohio — or are traders about to relearn the Midwest polling lesson?
Finally, Harry Crane joins to level up your prediction-market trading. We start with bet sizing for beginners, move into the Kelly Criterion, and ask how aggressive serious traders should really be when they believe they have an edge. Harry also weighs in on the biggest mistakes traders make and what he’s seeing in the 2026 midterm markets.
Sponsored segment:
Includes a Polymarket ad read. Polymarket US is back in the United States at polymarket.us.
Disclaimer:
Eventual is for informational and entertainment purposes only. Nothing in this episode should be understood as financial, legal, investment, gambling, or trading advice. Hosts, guests, and viewers may hold positions in prediction markets and may change those positions at any time. Nothing here is an endorsement to buy, sell, or trade any market. Trade safe and follow all applicable laws and platform rules in your jurisdiction.
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