Alex Keeney and Brian Golden examine whether an increasingly difficult midterm map is creating value in Democratic longshots from Texas to South Carolina. Trader Nick Pappas looks one election ahead, arguing that November’s winners and losers could immediately reshape prediction markets for AOC, JD Vance, James Talarico, Raphael Warnock and the rest of the 2028 field. The show also investigates the emerging plague scare in Russia and whether traders are pricing panic rather than pandemic risk. Finally, Ryan Jespersen joins from Alberta to explain the province’s separatist vote, Mark Carney’s pipeline breakthrough and how the U.S.–Canada trade war is changing Canadian politics.
The GOP is playing defense.
Alex and Brian dig into Republican spending moves in Texas and South Carolina as the Democratic wave thesis pushes traders toward increasingly unlikely races.
The 2028 race starts on election night.
Trader Nick Pappas explains how this year’s results could immediately reprice AOC, JD Vance, James Talarico, Raphael Warnock, Andy Beshear and other presidential longshots.
Plague panic hits the prediction markets.
Reports of a suspected outbreak in Siberia open new markets around international spread, a U.S. public-health emergency and travel restrictions—but the hosts see plenty of reason for skepticism.
Canada plots a new course.
Ryan Jespersen breaks down Alberta separatism, Mark Carney’s pipeline diplomacy and a U.S.–Canada trade war that could push Canada toward new economic relationships outside the United States...
Welcome back to Eventual — the OG prediction market podcast.
The midterm markets are moving fast. Alex and the crew play Buy, Sell, Hold on Texas, South Carolina and control of the Senate as Republican groups pull money from Texas, pour millions into South Carolina and Democrats climb to roughly a 65% chance of winning the chamber.
Then: plague panic. New markets are appearing around a potential public-health emergency, international spread and even a U.S. travel ban. Is this another prediction-market panic trade — or something traders should actually be watching?
We also look ahead to this week’s debates, talk Fed rates and open the mailbag before Nick Pappas joins Eventual to make the case for trading the 2028 presidential race right now. Are Warnock, Beshear and Wes Moore mispriced longshots? Is AOC already becoming a bond? And are we analyzing politics — or just degenerately trading elections three years early?
Finally, Ryan Jespersen, host of Real Talk with Ryan Jespersen, joins from Alberta to explain one of the strangest political stories in North America: the push for Alberta independence, Mark Carney’s extraordinary political rise and the deteriorating U.S.–Canada relationship. We discuss the coming Alberta referendum, the new Canadian pipeline, Trump’s trade war, whether Canada could move closer to the European Union and why Carney has become one of the most popular political figures in the country.
Plus: Ken Paxton, Darline Graham, Maine and Georgia debates, 2028 longshots, tariffs, Mark Carney for Time Person of the Year and more.
Sponsored segment:
Includes a Polymarket ad read. Polymarket US is back in the United States at polymarket.us.
Disclaimer:
Eventual is for informational and entertainment purposes only. Nothing in this episode should be understood as financial, legal, investment, gambling, or trading advice. Hosts, guests, and viewers may hold positions in prediction markets and may change those positions at any time. Nothing here is an endorsement to buy, sell, or trade any market. Trade safe and follow all applicable laws and platform rules in your jurisdiction.
If using Polymarket US, remember it is 18+ only. Restrictions and eligibility requirements apply. Trading is risky, and 100% loss can occur. Not available in all jurisdictions. See polymarket.com/tos for more information.