Alex Keeney and Pratik Chougule investigate how far a Democratic wave could reach, with Nick Reynolds explaining why South Carolina remains difficult terrain even as Republicans spend to protect Darlene Graham. Gaetan Dugas breaks down which political scandals actually move voters and where controversy could matter in races from Kansas to Texas. William Keydjani hunts for value beyond the outright winner in Britain’s Holborn and St Pancras by-election, using vote-share and third-place markets to read the future of the UK left. Finally, PRIO acting director Haakon Gjerløw explains how to forecast the Nobel Peace Prize, why humanitarian organizations such as Sudan’s Emergency Response Rooms stand out, and why some of the world’s most famous names still don’t fit the committee’s traditional criteria.
The Nobel Peace Prize is more predictable than it looks.
PRIO acting director Haakon Gjerløw explains what the committee tends to reward, why Sudan’s Emergency Response Rooms are a serious contender, and why high-profile names like Trump and Elon Musk remain long shots.
South Carolina probably isn’t flipping—but the margin could get interesting.
Post and Courier reporter Nick Reynolds explains why Annie Andrews faces difficult fundamentals despite Darlene Graham’s weaknesses, fresh Republican spending and signs of a potentially stronger Democratic year.
Not every scandal is worth trading.
Gaetan Dugas argues that scandals matter most when they’re simple and reinforce what voters already believe, putting controversies around Roger Marshall and Beau French under a different lens than attacks on Susan Collins or Mary Peltola.
The best UK trade may not be the winner.
William Keydjani previews the Holborn and St Pancras by-election, finding more interesting opportunities in Labour and Green vote shares—and even the battle for third place—than in Labour’s heavily favored outright win.
On today’s Eventual — the OG prediction market podcast, Alex Keeney and Pratik Chougule start with the South Carolina Senate race. Nick Reynolds of The Post and Courier joins to break down Darline Graham vs. Annie Andrews, the fundraising gap, what he’s hearing from inside the state and whether the market is underrating the Democrat at roughly 15%.
Then Gaeten Dugas returns to Eventual for a crash course in trading political scandals. Which controversies actually penetrate with voters, which disappear after one news cycle, and how should traders think about Susan Collins in Maine, Mary Peltola in Alaska, Roger Marshall in Kansas and the increasingly strange Texas Railroad Commission race?
We head across the Atlantic with William Kedjanyi for the Holborn and St Pancras by-election, where Sagal Abdi-Wali has become an overwhelming favorite. Is there any value left in the longshot — and what exactly is happening to the Green Party?
Finally, Haakon Gjerløw, acting director of the Peace Research Institute Oslo (PRIO), joins us ahead of Friday’s Nobel Peace Prize announcement. We talk through how the Nobel Committee thinks, why humanitarian organizations are attracting attention, the case for Sudan’s Emergency Response Rooms, Russia and Ukraine, AI safety, the International Space Station — and why Donald Trump, Xi Jinping, Mark Carney and Elon Musk may or may not belong anywhere near the conversation.
Plus: prediction-market edge, political scandals, Nobel forecasting, UK politics and another round of trying to turn the entire world into a trade.
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