Alex Keeney and Brian Golden examine Democrats’ expanding House battlefield and how traders can search for overlooked opportunities as Election Day approaches. Silver Bulletin’s Eli McKown-Dawson goes inside FLIPR, explaining how polling, fundamentals, candidate quality and expert ratings become election probabilities—and why late polling movement may be less dramatic than traders expect. Two-time perfect-map caller Blitz then argues Florida remains more Republican than some recent polling suggests while assessing the broader fight for Congress. The hosts also break down election-night strategies for trading volatile early returns without getting trapped by noisy margin markets. Finally, Mark Davis unveils Eventual’s new midterm dashboard, combining markets, polls, models and simulations into a single trading-focused view of the election.
The House battlefield keeps expanding.
Democrats are spending deeper into Republican territory, sending Alex and Brian hunting for overlooked House races where a broader wave could create long-shot opportunities.
Inside Nate Silver’s election model.
Silver Bulletin’s Eli McKown-Dawson explains how FLIPR weighs polls, fundamentals, candidate quality and expert ratings—and why unusual model outputs can reveal something real rather than a mistake.
Florida may resist the national trend.
Blitz pushes back on the closest Florida polls, arguing that Byron Donalds and Ashley Moody remain better positioned than the most competitive surveys suggest despite a much tougher national environment for Republicans.
Election night is its own trading discipline.
Alex and Brian favor exploiting overreactions and incomplete early returns while warning that hyper-specific margin markets can become extremely difficult when hundreds of races are moving simultaneously.
Eventual gets its own midterm trading dashboard.
Mark Davis unveils a new tool combining Polymarket prices, polling averages, forecaster ratings, fundraising and election simulations to quickly surface divergences and potential value across the map.
Alex and Brian start with Brian’s newfound fame as Bloomberg profiles his inflation trading, then dig into the expanding House battlefield, the districts Democrats are suddenly spending in, and the election-night strategies traders should be thinking about before November. How much can Florida tell us early? Are margin markets worth the adverse-selection risk? And which races could reveal a blue wave before the rest of the country catches up?
Then Eli McKown-Dawson joins to take us inside FLIPR, the election forecasting model he works on with Nate Silver. We talk candidate quality, polling misses, non-response bias, late movement and what happens when the model disagrees with your instincts.
Florida election savant Steve “Blitz” stops by to break down the Sunshine State, including whether Democrats are being underestimated in the governor and Senate races.
Finally, prediction-market OG Mark Davis unveils the new Eventual election trading dashboard — combining prediction-market prices, polling averages, fundraising, handicappers and thousands of simulated elections into one place. Mark walks through Senate seat distributions, potential value in margin markets, vulnerable incumbents and how traders can use the tool to hunt for mispriced races.
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Disclaimer:
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