Alex and Domer remain heavily positioned for a blue wave but question whether several Democratic Senate candidates have become overpriced. Logan Phillips sees Democrats favored in Ohio, competitive in Georgia and broadly advantaged, while warning that strong Republican candidates could still survive. Looking toward 2028, he identifies Jon Ossoff, AOC and Pete Buttigieg as the early Democratic frontrunners, with Wes Moore as a plausible long shot. In Texas, Garrett Fulce cautions against overreading Democratic early-vote advantages and argues James Talarico’s race is closer than prediction markets currently suggest. He also identifies Bell County as a potentially underpriced bellwether for traders watching the Texas Senate contest.
The blue wave may be real—but the easy money is disappearing.
Domer argues Democrats are headed for a potentially historic win, while Alex begins taking profits from expensive Senate positions and moving into safer House and Senate control trades.
Ohio still favors Democrats, but Sherrod Brown may be fully priced.
Logan Phillips gives Brown roughly a 70% chance of winning—strong, but slightly below the market—while Vivek Ramaswamy’s collapsing campaign could further damage Republicans statewide.
Georgia’s governor race is closer than the market suggests.
Keisha Lance Bottoms has momentum and favorable turnout signals, but Rick Jackson’s enormous financial advantage and relatively strong candidate profile keep the race near a true toss-up.
Candidate quality could create Republican survivors.
Logan identifies Ashley Hinson, Joe Lombardo, Susan Collins and Michelle Tafoya as Republicans outperforming the national environment by establishing identities separate from Donald Trump.
Texas early voting is encouraging for Democrats—but not decisive.
Garrett Fulce argues James Talarico is closer to fifty-fifty than his 68-cent market price, while identifying Bell County as a potentially valuable election-night bellwether and trading opportunity.
Extended:
The votes are finally coming in. Now the question is whether the early data is telling us anything real about November.
Alex Keeney and Domer kick off the midterm countdown by laying out their base cases for Election Day — and, more importantly, what could prove them wrong. Could Latino voters swing back toward Democrats? Does Susan Collins finally go down in Maine? And can Democrats outrun the fundamentals in the Midwest?
Then Logan Phillips joins Eventual to separate signal from noise in the early vote.
Why are prediction markets getting increasingly bullish on Sherrod Brown in Ohio? Is the movement toward Keisha Lance Bottoms in Georgia justified by turnout, or are traders getting ahead of themselves? And which Senate or governor race is most likely to completely embarrass the polls?
Plus, we open up the Midterms Mailbag to talk Florida, Black and Latino turnout, low-propensity voters, and whether there are any genuine bright spots left for Republicans.
Then we go deep on the biggest question of the show: Texas.
Garrett Fulce joins to break down the Texas early vote and what it means for James Talarico vs. Ken Paxton. Democrats appear to be banking strong early turnout — but are those voters actually Democrats, independents, crossover Republicans, or something else entirely?
Topics include:
• Whether Talarico deserves his rising prediction-market price
• What primary history can tell us about the early electorate
• Talarico blowout vs. Hinojosa upset trades
• Tarrant County, Denton County and the suburbs deciding Texas
• What rural turnout could tell us about the GOP floor
• How much early-vote data traders should actually trust
• The races most likely to defy polling on Election Night
Sponsored segment:
Includes a Polymarket ad read. Polymarket US is back in the United States at polymarket.us.
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