Six days before the election, Alex and Pratik see prediction markets becoming increasingly efficient and argue that keeping cash available for election-night overreactions may offer more edge than forcing new positions now. They largely dismiss Mary Peltola’s Alaska ballot-recruitment story as a scandal unlikely to move ordinary voters, while treating South Carolina as a real—but increasingly expensive—blue-wave longshot. Pratik introduces a speculative strategy of buying ultra-cheap 2028 presidential candidates who could spike during the post-midterm hype cycle, including John Kennedy and potentially Abdul El-Sayed. The mailbag focuses on split-ticket voting in Texas, Georgia and the Midwest, with Alex and Pratik warning that enthusiasm for a Democratic landslide may now be creating value on select Republicans. Abroad, Pratik also identifies Marine Le Pen as increasingly underpriced amid France’s political and fiscal unrest.
South Carolina is no longer a joke—but Annie Andrews may already be expensive.
A new poll shows a dead heat with Darlene Graham, turning Andrews into a legitimate blue-wave trade while also creating potential value on the Republican favorite in the low 70s.
Mary Peltola’s October surprise looks like noise.
The report that Democratic operatives recruited another Dan Sullivan may interest political obsessives, but Alex and Pratik doubt it will persuade many voters or materially change Alaska’s Senate race.
The best election-night position may be cash.
With most major markets increasingly sharp, traders may find better opportunities after incomplete returns trigger panic, overreactions and sudden mispricing.
The 2028 presidential penny stocks are already available.
Pratik argues that ultra-cheap candidates such as John Kennedy—and potentially Abdul El-Sayed if markets add him—could briefly multiply in value as politicians claim credit for the midterms and launch speculative campaigns.
Split-ticket voting could save some Republicans from the wave.
Abbott–Talarico voters in Texas are the clearest example, while strong Republican candidates in Georgia, Nebraska and Kansas may outperform even if Democrats dominate nationally.
Blue-wave enthusiasm may be creating Republican bargains.
Alex and Pratik flag Greg Abbott, Jim Pillen and Ashley Moody as candidates who may now be underpriced as traders stretch increasingly far into traditionally red territory.
Extended:
The midterms are almost here — and Alaska just delivered a genuine October surprise.
Alex Keeney and Pratik Chougule break down a New York Times investigation into a secret effort by Democratic operatives aligned with Mary Peltola to recruit additional candidates for Alaska’s Senate ballot — including another man named Dan Sullivan.
Peltola is still trading around a 73% favorite to defeat Republican Sen. Dan Sullivan. Does the story actually change the race, or is this exactly the kind of late-cycle scandal traders should fade?
Then: Election Night penny stocks.
Prediction markets normally cap your upside at $1. But the period immediately after the midterms could create some unusually asymmetric trades in the 2028 presidential markets. We look for candidates currently sitting in the single digits who could suddenly 2X, 5X or 10X after one big Election Night storyline.
Plus, the Eventual mailbag:
• Which races are most vulnerable to split-ticket voting?
• Could Texas voters split their governor and Senate ballots?
• Will Democratic governors run behind Dan Osborn and Adam Hamilton?
• And, most importantly: can blowing on the dice save Gina Hinojosa?
We also check in on the Fed, France’s political turmoil and another increasingly chaotic Israeli election.
The midterms are here. Time to trade the weird stuff.
Sponsored segment:
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Eventual is for informational and entertainment purposes only. Nothing in this episode should be understood as financial, legal, investment, gambling, or trading advice. Hosts, guests, and viewers may hold positions in prediction markets and may change those positions at any time. Nothing here is an endorsement to buy, sell, or trade any market. Trade safe and follow all applicable laws and platform rules in your jurisdiction.
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