ice President JD Vance is everywhere selling an Iran framework. But Rachael Bade — who writes The Inner Circle on Substack and co-hosts The Huddle — says the hardest sticking points haven't been touched yet. Can Vance and Iran strike a deal that Trump and Congress will approve? Also this week: political forecaster Logan Phillips thinks prediction markets have the New York AI primary completely backwards. OpenAI money is flooding the race to stop assemblyman Alex Bores — but Logan's model has Bores is favored. Brian Golden (aka Prince Howl, #1 econ trader on Kalshi) explains why World Cup group winners are dramatically underpriced in the knockout round — and why 11-and-1 is sitting at 12 cents. Plus: California's billionaire tax showdown, the Thune-Trump rift, and a very short-term bond play on the housing bill. Eventual is powered by Polymarket — the world's largest prediction market, now relaunched in the US. Sign up at polymarket.us
ice President JD Vance is everywhere selling an Iran framework. But Rachael Bade — who writes The Inner Circle on Substack and co-hosts The Huddle — says the hardest sticking points haven't been touched yet. Can Vance and Iran strike a deal that Trump and Congress will approve? Also this week: political forecaster Logan Phillips thinks prediction markets have the New York AI primary completely backwards. OpenAI money is flooding the race to stop assemblyman Alex Bores — but Logan's model has Bores is favored. Brian Golden (aka Prince Howl, #1 econ trader on Kalshi) explains why World Cup group winners are dramatically underpriced in the knockout round — and why 11-and-1 is sitting at 12 cents. Plus: California's billionaire tax showdown, the Thune-Trump rift, and a very short-term bond play on the housing bill. Eventual is powered by Polymarket — the world's largest prediction market, now relaunched in the US. Sign up at polymarket.us
00:00:00,100 --> 00:00:53,480 [Alex Keeney]
Hey, welcome to Eventual. This is your OG prediction market podcast. I'm Alex Keeney, and this is where traders come to talk business. On the agenda today, we've got the AI industry versus everybody in a high-profile New York City Democratic primary. Then in California, Gavin Newsom, billionaires, unions, they're all showing down this week in California over this wealth tax that might be happening sometime soon. And then finally, we've got Rachel Bade joining from the Huddle and the Inner Circle, and she's gonna be talking about what's really on Donald Trump's mind when it comes to these Iran negotiations, and also this wider and wider rift between congressional Republicans and the boss in the White House. Lots of places that's gonna connect between now and the midterms. All right, let's get started.
00:00:54,880 --> 00:01:23,240 [Alex Keeney]
Hey, guys, I wanna tell you about Polymarket. We love Polymarket, and they just relaunched in the United States. So go to polymarket.us and they'll even give you a little bonus to sign up. We use Polymarket for all of our show's data. They're global, they've been in the business for years, and they just understand traders, so we're very happy to use the information they produce in this show. So again, visit polymarket.us and, uh, try out their new product for Americans.
00:01:25,200 --> 00:01:51,720 [Alex Keeney]
All right, fam, remember, this show is for informational purposes only. This is not financial advice. Nothing you hear here is a recommendation to buy or sell or trade anything. We are doing this because we love the information. So remember, people on this show, they may change their positions, they may hold positions, they may not tell you when they do it. So be safe. If you trade, trade safely, do your own research, come to us for information, but do not come to us for financial advice. Thank you.
00:01:55,080 --> 00:02:07,840 [Robot]
Higher performance and faster and more reliable. Nothing really compares right now. Nothing has been improved in a way that nothing else comes close.
00:02:07,840 --> 00:02:31,140 [Alex Keeney]
All right, fam, returning to Eventual, totally unmasked, it is the one and only Brian Golden. Some of you know him as Prince Howl. Brian, can, can you, like, introduce yourself as a real human being? I know that you're sort of known on the internet. You're written about in Bloomberg and New York Times as this, uh, prediction market sleuth named Prince Howl, but, like, this is you. This is the real you. Do you wanna say hello to the world?
00:02:31,140 --> 00:02:53,900 [Brian Golden]
Yeah, what's up? I'm Brian. Um, I'm coming out from my, you know, Shakespeare-inspired screen name, and, uh, where I usually just, you know, am on the Discord dunking on, um, inflation experts who can't beat me. But, um, yeah, I'm really happy to be here. There's a lot to talk about, and, um, thanks for having me, man. Let's roll. Let's chop it up.
00:02:53,900 --> 00:03:00,160 [Alex Keeney]
All right, all right, all right. But, like, look, you know that we can't do it straight. So I'm gonna... I, I'm gonna, like, give your bio to the audience 'cause you're gonna be-
00:03:00,160 --> 00:03:00,170 [Brian Golden]
Okay
00:03:00,170 --> 00:03:11,880 [Alex Keeney]
... holding it down here with me, and, like, maybe you can edit me. So you're a, a former magazine writer, a former screenwriter. Uh, you're, you're a good editor. You understand storytelling. So let me introduce you on my terms. And, um-
00:03:11,880 --> 00:03:12,640 [Brian Golden]
Great. Okay
00:03:12,640 --> 00:03:26,130 [Alex Keeney]
All right, so you are... I know two things about you that are absolutely true. One is that you're the top economics and top cultural trader on Calci, and that you also happen to be a real Iowan. No need to, like, go to a diner and find out what Iowans think.
00:03:26,130 --> 00:03:26,180 [Brian Golden]
[laughs]
00:03:26,180 --> 00:03:28,420 [Alex Keeney]
So those two things are true, right?
00:03:28,420 --> 00:03:37,000 [Brian Golden]
Uh, I'm not sure I'm number one in culture anymore. Definitely number one in econ, and definitely... Wait, the sign's over this shoulder. Yeah, definitely a real life Iowan.
00:03:37,000 --> 00:03:47,950 [Alex Keeney]
Okay. Okay. Okay, cool. Now, here's what I don't know if it's true about you. Um, you're a, you're a drama kid. I've heard you say you're a drama kid. I think that might be fake. So are you actually a theater kid, or is that fake?
00:03:47,950 --> 00:04:00,730 [Brian Golden]
Well, I'm a... I was a drama kid, but I'm not a drama grown-up. I'm a recovering theater maker, and am now in a 12-step program to never, ever make theater again.
00:04:00,730 --> 00:04:00,740 [Alex Keeney]
Okay. So you-
00:04:00,740 --> 00:04:02,900 [Brian Golden]
But yes, that is in my past, for sure
00:04:02,900 --> 00:04:10,010 [Alex Keeney]
So you, you are a drama kid who trades macroeconomics. I don't think this story exists in many places, but this is why we love-
00:04:10,010 --> 00:04:10,010 [Brian Golden]
Yeah
00:04:10,010 --> 00:04:11,340 [Alex Keeney]
... prediction markets.
00:04:11,340 --> 00:04:19,200 [Brian Golden]
Yeah. I mean, anybody can do it. You, you know Excel and are ready to grind. So we're here to teach you how.
00:04:19,200 --> 00:04:23,760 [Alex Keeney]
All right. All right. So we're gonna hit quickly with, uh, with, uh... with some help from our friends, actually. Um-
00:04:23,760 --> 00:04:23,860 [Brian Golden]
Cool
00:04:23,860 --> 00:04:53,340 [Alex Keeney]
... we've got e- elections in New York and South Carolina. We've got a lot of billionaires kind of mixing it up this week in California and New York. I guess the sort of... the heartland of, um, amber waves of grain, of billionaires. Um, we've got Keir Starmer, who is soon to be unemployed in the UK after being the prime minister. And I think you, um, being the, the theater kid you are, uh, being the affluent, uh, financial professional that you are, um, are gonna talk about the World Cup a little bit too, right?
00:04:54,460 --> 00:05:06,740 [Brian Golden]
Yeah. World Cup is, is on. You know, I've already seen the US, in person, score the most goals they've scored in a World Cup in 100 years. I'm pumped. Um, yeah, ready to talk about that. Let's do it.
00:05:06,740 --> 00:05:10,650 [Alex Keeney]
All right. All right. We're gonna save, we're gonna save that for the end and put a little mustard on the segment.
00:05:10,650 --> 00:05:10,680 [Brian Golden]
Cool.
00:05:10,680 --> 00:06:45,204 [Alex Keeney]
So, um, let's, um... let's start in election land. So you and I like to play a little game of, uh, buy, sell, hold. So, um, I think it's obvious, but in case it's not obvious, uh, we're just gonna talk about things happening in the world, and trades, and whether, in this situation, uh, it's a buy, it's a sell, or it's a, you know, take a chill pill. Um, so C- uh, South Carolina. Uh, South Carolina has its runoff for the gubernatorial on Tuesday, and, um, we'll scene set a little bit here from Adam Wollner at NBC. Um, quote, "President Donald Trump is now throwing his support behind both of the remaining Republicans in the South Carolina governor's race as he seeks to avoid the possibility of another primary setback this month. Uh, Trump has endorsed Lieutenant Governor Pamela Evette in late May, and then, uh, just this last week he endorsed Attorney General Alan Wilson." So, um- Basically, the markets, I think this can probably be a quick stop for us, Brian. Um, the markets are pricing Allen Wilson, the son of Joe Wilson, at, as a 99% favorite to win the GOP nomination here. Um, they are just reading polls, how Wilson dominates in all of the areas that, uh, will t- you know, will decide this election, has picked up endorsements from everyone who matters, including Trump. Uh, there's just not much dispute about this market. T- is this like 99 cents consensus buy, sell, hold? Do you, do you bond these sort of 24-hour get one penny markets, or is this, uh, something you're staying away from?
00:06:45,204 --> 00:06:58,844 [Brian Golden]
I just have to say the, the double endorsement gives me such incredible flashbacks to the Eric moment, which is a, an, an all-time prediction market moment of Trump endorsing both Eric Schmidt and Eric Gaeton by saying vote for Eric. I mean-
00:06:58,844 --> 00:06:59,034 [Alex Keeney]
[laughs]
00:06:59,034 --> 00:07:11,944 [Brian Golden]
... that, that was, that's just a legendary Trump prediction market move. Um, I, I do sometimes, uh, buy 99 cent shares, but not in elections, only because I feel like
00:07:13,224 --> 00:07:32,524 [Brian Golden]
technically anything can still happen, and I would rather... You know, there are other, there are economic places that I feel like things literally are impossible, um, that I would be more likely to buy at 99, but I don't really see any compelling reason to, to fade the 99 at 1 either. I don't know. Maybe somebody else does.
00:07:32,524 --> 00:07:39,064 [Alex Keeney]
Yeah, yeah, yeah. I think, I think a 99 cent buy is, like, only if you're predicting the present or the past. But if you're still-
00:07:39,064 --> 00:07:39,074 [Brian Golden]
Yeah
00:07:39,074 --> 00:07:43,843 [Alex Keeney]
... trying to predict something that hasn't happened yet, that's just, that's just bad use of money.
00:07:43,844 --> 00:08:03,864 [Brian Golden]
I think so, uh, especially 'cause, you know, you have a limited resource a- and that, that money can, in theory, be spent for something else that comes up. I've had some bad experiences buying at 99, and then things take longer to resolve than I think, and all of a sudden I'm selling at 97 just to get the money back, and that's, like, a kind of a disaster.
00:08:03,864 --> 00:08:08,044 [Alex Keeney]
Yeah, yeah. Uh, uh, buy high, sell low. That's not really how we operate here.
00:08:08,044 --> 00:08:08,974 [Brian Golden]
[laughs] No.
00:08:08,974 --> 00:08:28,354 [Alex Keeney]
Um, all right, all right, let's, let's go on billionaire patrol. So, um, have you, Brian, um, I've got, I've got some talking points queued up here, but have you been following the billionaires tax in California, the will they or won't they, uh, with the some 200 billionaires in the Golden State? Is that on your radar as a Californian?
00:08:29,944 --> 00:08:32,904 [Brian Golden]
Man, it's, it's a little bit on my radar. I have been,
00:08:34,144 --> 00:08:41,754 [Brian Golden]
y- you know, just n- probably not as focused on it as I should because I'm busy trying to make the CalHCF money so that they will tax me as a billionaire.
00:08:41,754 --> 00:08:41,784 [Alex Keeney]
Yeah.
00:08:41,784 --> 00:08:58,844 [Brian Golden]
But I'm still a bit away from that bracket, I have to say. Y- you know, I, I pay attention to all this stuff, but I don't know that I have a really strong read on if this has the juice to, to sort of get past Newsom's pushback or not. Do you have a take?
00:08:58,844 --> 00:09:03,004 [Alex Keeney]
Yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah. So I, I have... This is, like, my favorite market right now, and it's-
00:09:03,004 --> 00:09:03,014 [Brian Golden]
Oh
00:09:03,014 --> 00:09:06,884 [Alex Keeney]
... not my favorite market 'cause I've got it, like, lock, stock here. But, um-
00:09:06,884 --> 00:09:07,324 [Brian Golden]
Right
00:09:07,324 --> 00:09:13,464 [Alex Keeney]
... may- yeah, maybe I'll refer the question to the, to the, um, not fake news, the, the real news press here.
00:09:13,464 --> 00:09:14,244 [Brian Golden]
Yeah. Okay.
00:09:14,244 --> 00:09:49,474 [Alex Keeney]
All right. So, uh, Kristin Wang at CalMatters writes, quote, "A union wants California's billionaires to rescue the state's healthcare system." So that's the, uh, healthcare workers union of the SEIU, and that's gonna be important when we come back to it. Um, "The billionaires have other ideas. On June 17th, an initiative to tax the state's wealthiest residents qualified for the ballot, according to the Secretary of State's office. But Gavin Newsom," dun, dun, dun, "who has consistently swatted down the idea of tax increases throughout his, his tenure, emerged as an early opponent. Newsom is reportedly trying to negotiate a last-minute deal that would-
00:09:49,474 --> 00:09:49,474 [Brian Golden]
Oh
00:09:49,474 --> 00:10:13,304 [Alex Keeney]
... pull the initiative before it's finalized." So what's happening here is on Thursday, this either goes forward or this goes nowhere, and the markets are giving basically a 65% shot that this is on the ballot in November. So we're, w- we've got, like, a lot of powerful people with a lot of different agendas. Do you wanna weigh in on, on who's, who's got the juice here at 65 cents?
00:10:14,424 --> 00:10:40,004 [Brian Golden]
I, I, I mean, I'm, I'm honestly just kind of more curious about what Gavin is doing. I mean, he's running for president, we know that. Doesn't it seem like the, the vibe more broadly is anti-billionaire? It's, I mean, it, my zero level take is that Gavin's running for president move would be to tax the billionaires. So I'm kind of confused at what his... Like, uh, do you, what do you think his game is here?
00:10:40,004 --> 00:10:47,074 [Alex Keeney]
Yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah. So, so I've been listening to a lot of Gavin Newsom press conferences, and I've been listening to a lot of union press conferences.
00:10:47,074 --> 00:10:47,074 [Brian Golden]
Right.
00:10:47,074 --> 00:11:09,984 [Alex Keeney]
And I think it's, like, pretty obvious, you know, when it's reported that Gavin Newsom's trying to cut a deal to make this go away. I think it's pretty obvious that there's, like, no deal to be made. 'Cause what, like, what, Brian? Like, Gavin Newsom from the French Laundry who likes, like, hot women and nice wine, like, he's gonna be Bernie Sanders lite and pass a, a 2% wealth tax in California? Like, do you believe that? I personally don't believe that.
00:11:09,984 --> 00:11:10,024 [Brian Golden]
Yeah.
00:11:10,024 --> 00:11:12,883 [Alex Keeney]
Like, are, are you with me that far?
00:11:12,884 --> 00:11:18,284 [Brian Golden]
Yeah. Yeah, I don't think that Gavin's lane is, is, is the Bernie lane at all.
00:11:18,284 --> 00:11:18,504 [Alex Keeney]
Yeah.
00:11:18,504 --> 00:11:19,664 [Brian Golden]
I, I agree with you. Yeah.
00:11:19,664 --> 00:11:32,894 [Alex Keeney]
Okay. All right. So, so now I'm looking at a market that says 65% chance this is still on the ballot. So, like, taxing billionaires polls well in California. The polling says it's, like, a better than 50% chance that this goes through.
00:11:33,984 --> 00:11:55,224 [Alex Keeney]
The Democratic Party is completely split on it. Like, I, I, like, why would the union pull it at this point? Like, I could be wrong about this, but, um, like, are, are they, are they gonna get pushed around? I, I mean, I would guess no, they've spent a lot of capital on this already. So I, I, I would think this doesn't come off the ballot and, you know, 65 cents is fair price, maybe underpriced for it staying on.
00:11:55,224 --> 00:12:17,544 [Brian Golden]
I mean, Gavin has a lot of juice and, I mean, he's, he's, he tends to get what he wants in general, but also he's a lame duck, and so they don't really have a need to, like... Like, they're not gonna be making future deals with him, right? So I don't really see why they would have the need to, you know, to bend over against something, as you said, that they've, you know, they've put a lot of capital towards. So I guess I don't really get it.
00:12:18,512 --> 00:12:33,052 [Alex Keeney]
Um, all right, so California billionaires, Brian, um, am I—this is, like, a risky thing for me to say is a, is a buy, but, um, you know, we said buy, sell, hold. I'm maybe calling buy at 65 cents that the billionaires tax makes the ballot.
00:12:33,052 --> 00:12:43,952 [Brian Golden]
Yeah, I mean, based on what I know, based on your sort of context you're presenting it in, it doesn't feel like a sell. It feels like a, it feels like a buy or stay out because the price doesn't make sense.
00:12:43,952 --> 00:12:44,212 [Alex Keeney]
Yeah.
00:12:44,212 --> 00:12:45,852 [Brian Golden]
I can get on board with that.
00:12:45,852 --> 00:12:47,042 [Alex Keeney]
All right. Okay. All right.
00:12:47,042 --> 00:12:47,052 [Brian Golden]
Yeah.
00:12:47,052 --> 00:12:52,112 [Alex Keeney]
Very credulous audience on this trade. Be- be- be careful. Remember, fam, to do your own research.
00:12:52,112 --> 00:12:54,622 [Brian Golden]
Yeah. [upbeat music]
00:12:54,622 --> 00:13:18,332 [Alex Keeney]
All right. Joining us now is, uh, an old friend, and, uh, I'm gonna call her part of the true elite of Washington media. We've got Rachel Bade. Rachel writes The Inner Circle over at Substack, so go subscribe to that now, and she's also a co-host of "The Huddle" with Sean Spicer and Dan Turentine, and a former Playbook writer. And Rachel, can I call you a father figure even though you're, um-
00:13:18,332 --> 00:13:33,232 [Brian golden]
[laughs] I like it, Alex. I like it. Uh, once upon a time, for those who don't know, uh, Alex and I were working on a show together over at Politico, the mothership, so it's a good time. I miss you, Alex. I miss hanging out.
00:13:33,232 --> 00:13:42,592 [Alex Keeney]
I, I miss you too, and you know what? We've gone our different ways. I'm on the West Coast, and, uh, but we're both wearing French blue on this summer day, so, um, we've, we've still got that together.
00:13:42,592 --> 00:13:44,352 [Brian golden]
Color of the summer maybe? I don't know.
00:13:44,352 --> 00:13:52,422 [Alex Keeney]
That's right. That's right. Um, all right, so Rachel, um, our crowd has a few questions that you and your reporting might have answers to.
00:13:52,422 --> 00:13:52,452 [Brian golden]
Sure.
00:13:52,452 --> 00:14:01,092 [Alex Keeney]
So I was hoping I could just sort of, um, s- uh, test some ideas that exist in the market, and you can tell me whether or not there's a source in Washington who would even back them up.
00:14:01,092 --> 00:14:01,212 [Brian golden]
[laughs]
00:14:01,212 --> 00:14:03,392 [Alex Keeney]
Um, are you cool with playing this game for a second?
00:14:03,392 --> 00:14:04,752 [Brian golden]
Yeah, let's do it. I love games.
00:14:04,752 --> 00:14:25,152 [Alex Keeney]
Okay. All right. L- yeah, we love a good game. Ra- Rachel and Alex back at it again. Um, okay, so we've got Trump and Iran. Uh, this story will not go away. It's exciting and it's also depressing at the same time. So Trump says that Iran will never have a nuclear weapon. I think the exact quote is, "They will never, never have a nuclear weapon."
00:14:25,152 --> 00:14:25,162 [Brian golden]
Hmm.
00:14:25,162 --> 00:14:50,012 [Alex Keeney]
Um, the markets are a little skeptical over when this negotiation that JD Vance is running, whether that's gonna be the case. Uh, they, they think very low odds that the Iranians will agree to halt nuclear enriching, uh, or will hand over uranium to the United States. So like, is there, is, is, is there a deal to be made without an end to nuclear enrichment? Do you think Trump will ever accept a deal without one of these two stipulations?
00:14:50,012 --> 00:14:57,162 [Brian golden]
Well, I think when he says never, never, never, you look at the details and actually, like, what they're talking about is, like, 20 years.
00:14:57,162 --> 00:14:57,192 [Alex Keeney]
Yeah.
00:14:57,192 --> 00:15:29,862 [Brian golden]
So I mean, even if he gets everything he wants, uh, in terms of what he laid out, like, the reality is the administration now is not looking at a never e- like, there, that's just like, that's not, that's not even in the conversation at this point. Um, so I, I mean, like, it's a question of can they get 10 years? Can they get 20 years? Will, do they, like, and do they get Iran to agree not to enrich at all, which is apparently what JD Vance was saying, like they don't want any enrichment whatsoever. Um, I mean, look, like, the hardest question, like, the, the, the s- biggest sticking points right now,
00:15:31,152 --> 00:15:40,212 [Brian golden]
that's what they're tackling in the next two months. So I mean, the administration is touting this as a huge win. Um, but really this is like a, it was about reopening the strait-
00:15:40,212 --> 00:15:40,222 [Alex Keeney]
Yeah
00:15:40,222 --> 00:15:55,472 [Brian golden]
... getting gas prices to, to go down. But, like, they have not gotten those iron, like, concrete commitments from Iran that they set out to get originally. So they have a lot of work to do, and this is why the hawks are, like, going ballistic here in Washington.
00:15:55,472 --> 00:16:09,022 [Alex Keeney]
So, so do you, do, like, I'm gonna get technical here, and, like, neither of us are technical, but do, like, do you think... I, I read that MOU that, uh, Vance brought home, and I think Trump e-signed live on camera or something, like, what, what a presidency it is.
00:16:09,022 --> 00:16:10,072 [Brian golden]
No, Vance e-signed it, I think-
00:16:10,072 --> 00:16:10,632 [Alex Keeney]
Oh, that's it
00:16:10,632 --> 00:16:15,452 [Brian golden]
... and Trump signed it. I could be wrong about that, but they, yes, you're, they both signed it, so.
00:16:15,452 --> 00:16:16,912 [Alex Keeney]
It, it was fun. Whatever it was, it was like-
00:16:16,912 --> 00:16:17,102 [Brian golden]
Yeah
00:16:17,102 --> 00:16:20,802 [Alex Keeney]
... God, only this presidency. Um, but, uh, d- like, there, there was this-
00:16:20,802 --> 00:16:23,451 [Brian golden]
Thank God for DocuSign, Alex. [laughs]
00:16:23,452 --> 00:16:27,012 [Alex Keeney]
Truly, it's very helpful for small business owners, as I think we both know now.
00:16:27,012 --> 00:16:27,292 [Brian golden]
Yeah.
00:16:27,292 --> 00:16:27,302 [Alex Keeney]
Um,
00:16:28,312 --> 00:16:40,811 [Alex Keeney]
do you, do you, do you, th- there was a stipulation in there that was like that the United States would accept blending down the nuclear dust, and I thought, "Oh, that sounds a lot like maybe where this'll land is, is that they'll just sort of dilute the coffee or something like that." And-
00:16:40,812 --> 00:16:40,972 [Brian golden]
Yeah
00:16:40,972 --> 00:16:48,912 [Alex Keeney]
... um, but I, I just like, I have no sense of if that's something at the end of the day that Trump could swallow, but it, it seems like Trump can call anything a win.
00:16:48,912 --> 00:16:49,322 [Brian golden]
No, which means... Yeah.
00:16:49,322 --> 00:16:49,352 [Alex Keeney]
Yeah.
00:16:49,352 --> 00:16:52,172 [Brian golden]
I think he's, and I, I don't think originally they were. Um-
00:16:52,172 --> 00:16:52,242 [Alex Keeney]
Yeah
00:16:52,242 --> 00:17:00,742 [Brian golden]
... which shows you kind of where they have, they've moved the, the goalposts on this. Um, I mean, the reality about, and again, I'm not, like, a nuclear scientist either, uh-
00:17:00,742 --> 00:17:00,742 [Alex Keeney]
Yeah
00:17:00,742 --> 00:17:07,662 [Brian golden]
... but my understanding is that when you dilute it, it can verily, very easily sort of be made more potent again, that it's not-
00:17:07,662 --> 00:17:07,682 [Alex Keeney]
Yeah
00:17:07,682 --> 00:17:28,772 [Brian golden]
... that hard to re-enrich. Um, so just diluting it doesn't necessarily mean anything, 'cause they can do the exact opposite when your inspectors leave and you're not watching. So that's why I think a lot of people when they originally saw that reporting that the president would be potentially okay with this, uh, some of the Iran hawks, they're again, not happy about that, so.
00:17:28,772 --> 00:18:22,172 [Alex Keeney]
Yeah. Yeah. All right. So that's, so that's, like, the friction point to watch. We don't really have any clear information about it yet. Um, uh, do, do you think, so, so, like, JD Vance is everywhere. Like, I've never, I've never seen, he's like Hollywood celebrity movie tour. I don't know if he's selling books or if he's, um, selling Iran deals. I saw him on "The View." I saw him on "Megyn Kelly." I was just listening to his Ross Douthat podcast. Do, do, do you think, like, when JD Vance, who is in charge as the vice president of this negotiations, when he speaks, like, can people interpret that as the position of the administration, or do you think that Vance, like seemingly everyone who has, has done work on the president's behalf, is at risk of being kind of rug pulled and, you know, the, the president saying, "This guy's an idiot"? Like, "Don't listen to a word. I've made my own deal on the side." Like, do, do you think that dynamic exists in this negotiation, or do you think that JD Vance is credibly, um, you know, telling us where the deal is?
00:18:22,172 --> 00:18:36,838 [Brian golden]
I think any Trump administration will f- official will tell you That there's always a chance that the president could change his mind, and ultimately he's the boss. I mean, like, I've talked to folks who've worked in the administration before. This, this is... I mean, where Vance is is where the administration is right now.
00:18:36,838 --> 00:18:36,868 [Alex Keeney]
Yeah.
00:18:36,868 --> 00:18:45,058 [Brian golden]
He's not out there freelancing, right? Like, everything got sign-off from the man above. But the president also watches, uh, press coverage. I mean, he, he is an,
00:18:46,128 --> 00:19:38,938 [Brian golden]
an astute, uh, observer of the media. He cares about what the headlines say. He cares about, you know, what is Fox & Friends, how are they sort of playing this in the morning? And so I think one thing we had sort of been watching this weekend was, like, does the president in any way show distance or daylight between himself and what Vance has been talking about all week? Um, we, I mean, we haven't seen that, and in fact, the White House has come full- fully behind Vance over the past few days. There have been, like I said, a lot of the hawks out there going after JD, saying, like, you know, "This guy's never gonna be president. He's siding with the Iranians over the United States," et cetera. But they really brought out the attack dogs this weekend, and, like, the White House's Twitter account, like, the War Room, they were all retweeting this, um, the, the attack dogs hitting back at the neocons. So right now, I mean, the admin is, is completely with him, but again, the pres- this president is unpredictable, and I think-
00:19:38,938 --> 00:19:38,938 [Alex Keeney]
Right
00:19:38,938 --> 00:19:42,528 [Brian golden]
... anybody would tell you that. If they, if they weren't, they'd be lying, so.
00:19:42,528 --> 00:19:59,607 [Alex Keeney]
Right. Right, but, I mean, that's... L- look, for, for my crowd, like, that's a sort of valuable signal that, that you just, like, see if Trump is still calling in airstrikes for JD Vance, and, like, that's a pretty good indicator that, that he trusts him with the ball and that, um, you know, reporting that we read is credible, and-
00:19:59,608 --> 00:19:59,907 [Brian golden]
Right
00:19:59,907 --> 00:20:05,008 [Alex Keeney]
... um, like, this is, this is political intelligence, Rachel. Um, this is, this is very exciting music that you're making for us.
00:20:05,008 --> 00:20:05,488 [Brian golden]
[laughs]
00:20:05,488 --> 00:20:11,608 [Alex Keeney]
Let me ask you on the B side of that. So I've been following your work. Um, I'm, I'm actually gonna quote you. Are you okay being quoted-
00:20:11,608 --> 00:20:11,638 [Brian golden]
Oh, no
00:20:11,638 --> 00:20:12,327 [Alex Keeney]
... while you're in the room?
00:20:12,328 --> 00:20:14,068 [Brian golden]
That's so awkward. Sure, go for it.
00:20:14,068 --> 00:20:20,248 [Alex Keeney]
Sh- sh- should we talk about... So you brought up the midterms, but should we talk about John Thune and then connect that to the midterms? Do you like talking about John Thune?
00:20:20,248 --> 00:20:24,068 [Brian golden]
Okay. I love talking about John Thune. I love, I love The Hill. Let's talk, yes.
00:20:24,068 --> 00:21:20,808 [Alex Keeney]
Me too, me too, me too. Uh, uh, fu- fun fact: Only politician I've ever asked for a photo with is John Thune, so, um, uh, le- let's talk about him. So last week on The Huddle, your, uh, live show, uh, everyone go watch The Huddle, you said, quote, "The relationship, this relationship with President Trump and Senate Majority Leader John Thune has been fraying over time. They truly are oil and water. His," his being Thune, "his own members aren't mad at him over these disagreements. They're mad at the president." So, like, can you... Like, let's heat check this for a second here, okay? Like, when you talk about Thune and Trump being in a little bit of a feud or a beef or something, are you talking, like, repairable professional disagreement like Amy Klobuchar and Pete Buttigieg in 2020? Are you talking, like, nuclear apocalyptic Kendrick Lamar versus Drake, Amber Heard versus Johnny Depp? Like, like, where are we here to process this information?
00:21:20,808 --> 00:21:27,248 [Brian golden]
Or even Trump versus Mitch McConnell, which got so bad at one point there was no repairing that relationship. Um-
00:21:27,248 --> 00:21:27,828 [Alex Keeney]
Yeah
00:21:27,828 --> 00:21:29,028 [Brian golden]
... I think, um,
00:21:30,208 --> 00:21:46,898 [Brian golden]
nothing... Well, first of all, nothing unifies Republicans more than, um, a victory, right? Say Democrats flip the House, Republicans keep the Senate. Uh, all of a sudden, the Democrats start impeaching and doing all these investigations. All of a sudden, Thune is gonna be the president's best friend once again-
00:21:46,898 --> 00:21:46,898 [Alex Keeney]
Right
00:21:46,898 --> 00:22:12,238 [Brian golden]
... because the Senate becomes the, uh, the chamber to hold the line, uh, against all these things. That being said, like, the president got what he needed out of Thune, and that was a reconciliation bill, uh, two reconciliation bills. He got his tax cuts extended. Um, they were able to use this sort of fast-tracking tool to circ- circumvent the filibuster to plus up and, and fund ICE, uh, and CBP.
00:22:12,238 --> 00:22:12,328 [Alex Keeney]
Right.
00:22:12,328 --> 00:22:33,668 [Brian golden]
Um, but the things he wants right now that are top of mind, Thune is not gonna give him: ending the filibuster, um, what else? Getting rid of, like, the blue slip process. Basically, Democratic senators in their own states, they have... It's kind of strange. They have, like, veto authority over certain judicial appointments-
00:22:33,668 --> 00:22:33,678 [Alex Keeney]
Right
00:22:33,678 --> 00:22:35,108 [Brian golden]
... from their own state, which is really strange.
00:22:35,108 --> 00:22:36,928 [Alex Keeney]
Like longstanding Senate-
00:22:36,928 --> 00:22:37,118 [Brian golden]
It's tradition
00:22:37,118 --> 00:22:37,908 [Alex Keeney]
... you know? Right.
00:22:37,908 --> 00:22:39,268 [Brian golden]
Tradition.
00:22:39,268 --> 00:22:39,468 [Alex Keeney]
[laughs]
00:22:39,468 --> 00:22:59,768 [Brian golden]
Yes. Uh, lots of tradition in the Senate, and senators very jealously guard those traditions and their ability to, when they're in the minority, try to, like, throw up hurdles to the majority using the filibuster, uh, using the blue sl- slip process, um, passing the Save America Act. Uh, it's that, this bill-
00:22:59,768 --> 00:23:01,588 [Alex Keeney]
Right. That's a gift that keeps on giving
00:23:01,588 --> 00:23:05,908 [Brian golden]
... uh, require... Yeah. It'd basically require voters to show ID-
00:23:05,908 --> 00:23:05,918 [Alex Keeney]
Right
00:23:05,918 --> 00:23:19,808 [Brian golden]
... before they register to vote. Anyway, like, it's not going anywhere. It doesn't have the 60 votes needed to circumvent the filibuster. Thune has told him this. The president's like, "Fire the parliamentarian. Get rid of the, the filibuster. Pass this thing."
00:23:19,808 --> 00:23:21,148 [Alex Keeney]
Right. Off with his head.
00:23:21,148 --> 00:23:22,248 [Brian golden]
And Thune's the one that has to del- yeah. He's like-
00:23:22,248 --> 00:23:22,368 [Alex Keeney]
Yeah
00:23:22,368 --> 00:24:03,628 [Brian golden]
... "I'm..." He's the one delivering the bad news. So, um, I don't think it's completely beyond, uh, repair. I do think there are circumstances where you can see, you know, them being allied again. Uh, but it's not... I mean, it's not in a good position right now. I do... I will say one more thing on this, Alex. My co-host on The Huddle, Sean Spicer, who was Trump's first press secretary, um, during Trump one, he thinks that it's a matter of time before the president actually moves to oust him, like, that actively works to oust him from leadership, um, because a lot of people in MAGA really do not like Thune. And, uh, you know, I'll just leave it there. Yeah.
00:24:03,628 --> 00:25:07,412 [Alex Keeney]
So, so, okay, but, like, this, this sort of lines up with another important story, right? So, like, oh, here go the former Politico employees talking about, like, inside the Senate bullshit. But, um, uh- There's a midterm election coming up, and, like, my question is, I saw what John Thune... Uh, I'm sorry, what Donald Trump did to John Cornyn down in Texas, right? Like, I saw what he did to Bill Cassidy. Slightly dis- different situation there, 'cause, you know, you've got electable candidates waiting in the wing down in, down in Louisiana. And, like, m- my question is, is at this point, like, is Trump gonna support Senate Republicans in the midterms? Like, is, is, does he... Like, he says he has his eye on the ball, but, um, like I think it's sort of generous when I see, um, you know, I look at a market, and the market says there's a 60% chance that the Republicans are gonna hold the Senate. And I'm like, well, are they gonna have Big Daddy to call for help, you know, in October, November? Or is this rift so big that, like, it's every man for himself on, you know, in the Senate Republican conference, and, like, maybe we're talking about a, a, a bit of a blowout, uh, going into November?
00:25:07,412 --> 00:25:21,982 [Brian golden]
Uh, a couple things. One is I definitely don't think it's gonna be a, be a, be a blowout. I, um, it's really hard for me to see Democrats flipping the Senate, just because they've got to, they've gotta flip four seats, and I know there's a lot of different, you know, states on the board here.
00:25:21,982 --> 00:25:22,122 [Alex Keeney]
Right.
00:25:22,122 --> 00:25:26,512 [Brian golden]
But when you look at them individually, it's really hard to get to four right now.
00:25:26,512 --> 00:25:26,552 [Alex Keeney]
Right.
00:25:26,552 --> 00:25:58,142 [Brian golden]
Um, I do think that Senate Republicans, um, no doubt, hands down, feel that the President has undercut them in their effort to keep the Senate. Uh, the issue with Texas is not so much that they don't think Paxton can win over Talarico. Uh, I think most of them think he will. But it's gonna cost money, and Talarico is bringing in a ton of money, like just fundraising out the wazoo. Um, Paxton just doesn't have a, uh, much of a war chest, and so it's gonna require Republicans to spend money there in Texas.
00:25:58,142 --> 00:25:58,232 [Alex Keeney]
Right.
00:25:58,232 --> 00:26:34,022 [Brian golden]
Uh, which shouldn't be, you know, a scare for them. That diverts resources from other states where they need it. Um, and so I think there is a lot of annoyance with that. I think there's a lot of annoyance, again, with the Save America Act, with going after Republicans. I mean, Cornyn, um, the fact that he turned on John Cornyn was, like, a l- I think a final straw for a lot of Republicans. I think there's no doubt that Senate Republicans are very frustrated, and they feel like the President has undercut that. I do think the President's gonna spend. He has a ton of money in the war chest. The question is when. And there are Republicans who are like, "He better spend," right? "He's gonna spend money-
00:26:34,022 --> 00:26:34,022 [Alex Keeney]
Right
00:26:34,022 --> 00:27:10,362 [Brian golden]
... to help keep the, keep the majority," et cetera. Um, I think he will at some point. I just don't know when. Um, and I do think he'll campaign for people. I think that in most of the Senate seats, um, he's an asset on the campaign trail. We actually talked about that today, this morning on The Huddle. Um, you know, we talked about how, you know, it would be good if he went to Georgia. It would be good if he went to Iowa. Um, it would be good if he went to Texas. Like, there are solid Republican bases of support that they really need to turn out, and to turn them out, they need the president to be out there on the campaign trail with these candidates, even in seats that are a bit tricky. Although he's not gonna go to Maine to campaign-
00:27:10,362 --> 00:27:10,362 [Alex Keeney]
Right
00:27:10,362 --> 00:27:12,932 [Brian golden]
... with [laughs] Susan Collins, obviously. Yeah.
00:27:12,932 --> 00:27:35,052 [Alex Keeney]
Uh, he'll, he'll send, uh, JD Vance up there for that one. Um, what... Okay, all right. So, so, so to be clear, like, uh, the Alex Keeney apocalyptic theory that Trump just is not gonna be there for Senate Republicans, you are grinding that underneath the boot of your heel. Like, you know, chill out, bro, is, is Rachel's message, and, um, you know, we'll check in in a month or two when, when-
00:27:35,052 --> 00:27:37,732 [Brian golden]
Look, how help- how helpful is he gonna be?
00:27:37,732 --> 00:27:37,992 [Alex Keeney]
Yeah.
00:27:37,992 --> 00:27:42,091 [Brian golden]
I mean, probably not as helpful as they want him to be. I mean, obviously they're pissed at him, Alex.
00:27:42,092 --> 00:27:42,272 [Alex Keeney]
Yeah.
00:27:42,272 --> 00:27:43,432 [Brian golden]
But, um,
00:27:44,752 --> 00:27:48,952 [Brian golden]
I think, like, what he's doing now won't necessarily cost them the Senate, at least at this point.
00:27:48,952 --> 00:27:48,972 [Alex Keeney]
Yeah.
00:27:48,972 --> 00:27:51,362 [Brian golden]
We're, we're still a few months out, away, so we'll see.
00:27:51,362 --> 00:28:17,412 [Alex Keeney]
Well, yeah. Far be it from a podcast host to try and drum up controversy. Um, [laughs] so okay, all right. Uh, last question. Uh, Rachel, leading, you're, you're, you're a lifelong journalist, leading in your trade. Uh, we like to do, like, little hat tips to people who, um, are really kind of controlling the narrative, kind of... We call them Oracles of the Week, Oracles of the Month. I was thinking maybe we could do a little cage match between Jonathan Swan and Barak Ravid for, um-
00:28:17,412 --> 00:28:17,561 [Brian golden]
[laughs]
00:28:17,561 --> 00:28:20,591 [Alex Keeney]
... must-read material on the Iran, uh, war.
00:28:20,592 --> 00:28:20,602 [Brian golden]
Sure.
00:28:20,602 --> 00:28:25,792 [Alex Keeney]
So, uh, who, who's your pick? You wanna go Oracle of the Week Iran style between Swan and Ravid?
00:28:25,792 --> 00:28:27,792 [Brian golden]
Oh, it's gonna be Ravid, no doubt. I mean, like-
00:28:27,792 --> 00:28:28,072 [Alex Keeney]
Yeah
00:28:28,072 --> 00:29:03,632 [Brian golden]
... it, I mean, his reporting on all things foreign policy has been amazing. Um, and you know, he's gotten flack because he, you know, often would be reporting that, "Oh, they're so close to an Iran deal," and then every ti- I mean, how did, how many times did that happen until we actually saw an Iran deal? But, like, the guy is very clearly talking [laughs] to very high-level sources who were saying the same thing. So, um, I would take Ravid for that one. Although I'm excited about Jonathan Swan and Maggie Haberman's new book. I'm definitely planning to read it, and, um, buy it and read it over the, the July 4th recess, uh, if I can wait that long. So very excited.
00:29:03,632 --> 00:29:07,132 [Alex Keeney]
All right, cool. Uh, Rachel, thanks for joining us. Where can people find you?
00:29:08,372 --> 00:29:30,812 [Brian golden]
Where can be... Uh, I'm on Substack, uh, The Inner Circle with Rachel Bade. Please give me a follow. It's free. Uh, basically send out a newsletter, The Buzz of Washington, two to three times a week. And then on YouTube, if you look up @TheDCHuddle, the show's called The Huddle, uh, but our handle is @TheDCHuddle. Follow us there. Again, free, uh, five days a week at 8:30 in the morning.
00:29:30,812 --> 00:29:32,792 [Alex Keeney]
All right. Uh, thanks for stopping by.
00:29:32,792 --> 00:29:34,432 [Brian golden]
Thank you, Alex. [upbeat music]
00:29:34,432 --> 00:29:58,752 [Alex Keeney]
I think we need to talk about this AI versus everybody election in New York. Um, and we've got friend of the program, Logan Phillips, beaming in to talk about that. Logan, you wanna tell people who you are and what Race to the White House is, and then maybe we can talk about why the whole world is watching the AI industry, uh, fighting one random congressman out of 435?
00:29:58,752 --> 00:30:41,684 [Logan Phillips]
Yeah. Alex, first of all, great to be on, and great to see you, uh, pioneering once again here, um, on your new show. So, uh, my name's Logan Phillips. I run something called Race to the White House. So we predict every single race in the nation, and we track all the polling for every race. We were the most accurate in the nation in 2022. So basically, what I do for all my viewers is I take all these complicated, uh, political map from the House and the Senate- And these governor races, and I break it down into really accessible pieces through interactive graphics. You can get a good sense of what races matter the most. And I also try to show my homework, so if you're trying to have your own understanding of what's going on, you can see what I did and take your own path in terms of what you think it actually means for the race.
00:30:41,684 --> 00:32:20,604 [Alex Keeney]
So, so Logan, Logan, you're like OG adjacent. I know you're not a prediction market trader, but you mix it up with them from time to time. And we're, like, obsessed with this story that just will not end. Um, you know, you've got college students walking out on Eric Schmidt and Sundar Pichai giving graduation speeches about AI. You've got state and local governments everywhere trying to stop the constructions of data centers. And you've got kind of, like, one party, you've got Trump in the White House who's very permissive of the artificial intelligence industry. And you have, like, a growing discomfort that the Democratic Party is starting to express. And all of that is colliding in New York City or New York State from a congressional maps down- standpoint, where an assemblyman named Alex Boris is running, like, more or less, or has been imputed to be running on, like, an anti-AI ticket. And I'm looking at press coverage right now. It says that OpenAI has spent, or investors in OpenAI, have spent more than $7 billion on ads to get him out of the way. So, um, what we're trying to come up on here is Bor- Alex Boris, who's running to replace Jerry Nadler in Midtown Manhattan, a very affluent district, is priced at 35 cents as an underdog versus Micah Lasher, who sort of has industry support. So, like, Logan, you've been crunching a forecast on this. The anti-AI candidate, which I hope that is a fair way to characterize him, is definitely the underdog here according to the markets. You are a professional predictor of politics. Can you just smack us over the head with some knowledge about whether or not the market has this right?
00:32:20,604 --> 00:32:24,284 [Logan Phillips]
Yeah, I think the market has this dead wrong, honestly.
00:32:24,284 --> 00:32:24,704 [Alex Keeney]
Oh.
00:32:24,704 --> 00:33:07,074 [Logan Phillips]
Um, and so we're dealing with, first of all, right, let's just give context about what we're dealing with from a numbers perspective. This was one of the most well-polled races in the nation. House races, Senate, or governor at a certain point in late May. And then we had complete silence, right? So there's a lot of things we don't know about in terms of where this race is right now, especially in primaries in a house race where things can change quickly at the last second. Uh, that being said, the last time we checked in, uh, most of the polling, admittedly most of it private from a campaign, but even from b- multiple different candidates, were showing Boris taking the lead, Slosberg falling out of first place into third, and then Mica coming in pretty close behind, right? So just based off that information,
00:33:08,144 --> 00:33:28,624 [Logan Phillips]
I tend to think that Boris is favored. B- there's a bunch of other reasons to think that too, though, right? But that's just sort of a foundational reason, and I have a primary forecast that, look, admittedly is meant for the Senate. It almost always, in governor races, it almost always gets it right for that. I haven't tested on the House. It's done well when I've done it before. Um, I'll give you those numbers, um, in just a sec. But I also think, like,
00:33:30,564 --> 00:33:46,144 [Logan Phillips]
and this is important to understanding why I think Boris will win. There's a reason that they're spending so much on this race, and it doesn't have really that much to do with New York 12, and that's what makes this race maybe arguably the most important primary race in the nation this year.
00:33:47,344 --> 00:34:28,054 [Logan Phillips]
You're right in everything that you said. The American people are starting to care more and more about these AI companies and these chatbots, um, and these data centers, and it is like the hidden dragon that could be ... Like, that's what democracy is supposed to be about, right? Picking up these hidden dragons that could change the direction of politics because voters really care about them, but it's not being addressed by the government. And this is one of them, and the AI companies know it, especially, uh, you know, ChatGPT, and they're trying to head it off by sending a signal to politicians who, by definition, tend to be scaredy-cats, not wanting to separate from the pack, that are focused on winning re-election, and they're trying to say, "If you touch this, you will die." And so-
00:34:28,054 --> 00:34:46,803 [Alex Keeney]
So this is, this is like the, the, um, Cossacks, you know, going to the, the, to the village and, uh, burning the huts and, uh, smacking the peasants over their head to keep them from asking for more of their grain. Like, you, you really believe that, um, like, that is the issue on the table here?
00:34:46,804 --> 00:34:57,484 [Logan Phillips]
Oh, 100%. And it's kind of happened with crypto too, but here Americans care a lot more. And big money has a huge impact on politics, but people's views have more of an impact if they really care about something.
00:34:57,484 --> 00:35:21,404 [Brian Golden]
So in, in the Mamdani race, we had this insane youth turnout in New York City, and one could maybe say there's some variability onto whether that will be repeated for this primary. Does that sort of make it a difficult race to model or difficult race to poll because the most recent big election year had such atypical turnout?
00:35:21,404 --> 00:36:01,184 [Logan Phillips]
Yeah, I think it does. I also think that's not going to be what happens here because, um, you know, I was just there actually in the district, not for this podcast, sorry guys, because I found out about it today, but because, uh, I am a diehard New York Knicks fan, so I was in town for the parade. Um, loved that season all season long. I loved that team all season long. But I didn't hear anyone mention these races. The only people I saw were tons of volunteers who were really motivated and active. This isn't like Mamdani mania where that mayor race was seen as the most important thing in the world at that point, right? Uh, you know, it's, I don't think it's going to necessarily be low turnout, but I think it's going to be a little closer to normal, maybe a slight increase because you have new young voters in the system who are used to Democratic primaries.
00:36:01,184 --> 00:36:13,584 [Alex Keeney]
Yeah, I, I saw your boy at VoteHub tweeting about how the electorate looked kind of old for New York City this time around. So, um, I, I know that's very precise English that I've used for a forecaster, but maybe I'll just introduce that information.
00:36:13,584 --> 00:36:31,264 [Brian Golden]
In the days leading up to the Mamdani election, you could tell that that electorate was getting younger and younger. And I guess, you know, as I put my trading hat on, i- is that the kind of thing that I would be looking for as a trader if I want to be backing Boris here, is a similar-
00:36:31,992 --> 00:36:35,341 [Alex Keeney]
... pick up in youth turnout in the days before the election?
00:36:37,512 --> 00:36:41,832 [Logan Phillips]
Well, we also saw in the Mamdani race that youth turned out at much higher numbers on election day-
00:36:41,832 --> 00:36:42,122 [Alex Keeney]
Right
00:36:42,122 --> 00:37:16,192 [Logan Phillips]
... uh, than the, if memory serves me right. So, uh, yeah, you can compare piece to piece. Uh, that turnout was particularly unique. I don't think Boris necessarily needs it to win. And, and the reason I say that is because we have to look at who do we think would've run a better campaign from the cutoff point of when we actually have information, and that's going back to early May. We do have some indicators, I would argue, that look pretty good for Boris. One are Google Trends, which I look at in my forecast. Uh, that shows you who are people looking at in the last seven days, and they're looking at Boris at a much higher rate than they're looking at these other candidates.
00:37:16,192 --> 00:38:17,951 [Alex Keeney]
The, the anti-AI people I know personally also think this is the most important primary. So it's not just open AI and on, on those sides. People I know who are really afraid of AI think that it's incredibly important to elect Boris. So, you know, I, I wouldn't be surprised if you're getting, you know, that heat from both directions. Well, let me, let me put a, uh, a button on this for a second here. Logan, I, I think this is the time to ask the question where, like, core competencies collide here. So, you know, you forecast off of a plethora of variables. You just said polls, and you just said Google search terms, so, like, there's a lot of, a lot of things brewing in that witches cauldron of yours. But we do know that prediction markets tend to get pretty accurate this late in the game. So do you wanna just like, you know, uh, take your 155 millimeter polling howitzer and shoot it across the bow here? Like, w- w- why do y- why do you think this forecast is so wrong coming off of Polymarket and Kalshi once and for all?
00:38:17,952 --> 00:40:12,852 [Logan Phillips]
Well, Kalshi's good when they have a lot of data. When they don't have a lot of data, then, you know, it's based more off perceptions. Most of these people aren't living in the districts. They don't really have the tools to make this type of projection. So I mean, look, I'm a New York Knicks fan. They had us at, like, 6% in the first round. The Celtics had a 67% chance to win. I still think that these guys are limited from the conventional wisdom, but maybe two touches smarter. So sometimes they're just gonna get it wrong. I could get this one wrong as well because I'm dealing with limited information, and I think that's defensible in a race like this. That being said, so I personally have Boris, based off the information I have that's not qualitative, which I'll talk about in a sec, um, I have him projected to win with 30% of the vote. Uh, and I have Mika Lasher getting 26.59, so a very close race. Schlossberg getting 18.3. George Conway getting 14.1%. Now, personally, separate from what my model thinks, if voters go as I anticipate, I wouldn't be surprised if we see a crash-out for Schlossberg and Conway as voters realize it's a two-person race. But the polling data just isn't recent enough. It's also possible that one of those two candidates have surged in the last few weeks. Um, I doubt it, but it's certainly a possibility. The reason why I think Boris will do better is in addition to the fact that people are searching him a ton, which suggests he is the main character of this race, which is certainly true in the coverage of this race, but he's also having a much stronger social media campaign. Uh, and I think that matters more and more, especially when it comes to targeting, um, younger voters who are less likely to, um, consume regular media. Just look at these, this number, for example. Mika Lasher, his last YouTube video had 27 views. Boris's last mo- uh, YouTube video had 103,000. He has created a David versus Goliath narrative at a point where voters want politicians to stand up to those that they see as corrupt and powerful and having too much influence. I think it's the type of powerful narrative that in a multi-field candidate race could really stick out and ultimately help him win.
00:40:12,852 --> 00:40:22,012 [Alex Keeney]
All right. Well, um, Logan, you've left us with a lot to talk about. You're kind to join, and, uh, we always appreciate access to your brain when we can get it.
00:40:22,012 --> 00:40:24,172 [Logan Phillips]
Yeah. Thanks, Alex. Great to be on.
00:40:24,172 --> 00:40:39,232 [Alex Keeney]
Brian, man, like, my brain is blown here. Um, I think I might be a buyer. Like, I'm kind of an always trust Logan guy, and at 35 cents, like, this might be a good underdog pickup. Uh, you, do you wanna, do you wanna call me off of it if you think that, um, I'm a little too encourageable here?
00:40:41,132 --> 00:40:48,832 [Brian Golden]
He's persuasive. The only thing that gives me a little pause is just that my understanding tends to be that money matters the most late.
00:40:48,832 --> 00:40:49,131 [Alex Keeney]
Right.
00:40:49,132 --> 00:40:49,491 [Brian Golden]
And-
00:40:49,491 --> 00:40:49,871 [Alex Keeney]
Right
00:40:49,871 --> 00:41:03,002 [Brian Golden]
... you know, if, if what he's saying is who's run the better campaign since we have data, you know, my prior would be that whoever has the most money, which is not Boris, you know, has an opportunity to be more activating,
00:41:04,032 --> 00:41:19,352 [Brian Golden]
um, some of these, you know, undecided voters just 'cause they're spending so much. At the same time, I don't think pro-AI is, like, a winning message right now. So that's just the only thing that gives me a little pause i- is that the, you know, money tends to close well. But-
00:41:19,352 --> 00:41:19,582 [Alex Keeney]
Yeah
00:41:19,582 --> 00:41:21,322 [Brian Golden]
... you know, thir- 35 feels ...
00:41:23,042 --> 00:41:31,282 [Brian Golden]
It doesn't feel like a two to one. It doesn't feel like a two to one race. So 33 definitely feels low. So if 33 is low, then, then 35 can't be a sell.
00:41:31,282 --> 00:41:31,312 [Alex Keeney]
Yeah.
00:41:31,312 --> 00:41:32,992 [Brian Golden]
Has to be a buy or hold.
00:41:32,992 --> 00:42:00,492 [Alex Keeney]
Yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah. I think also, Lo- when you talk about the other candidates in the race, like George Conway is gonna be a sponge for all the MSNBC watchers. Jack Schlossberg, uh, y- you know, like, if young people are gonna come in late, and if there is sort of the idea that this is inevitably a clas- clash between the top two candidates, I would think Schlossberg's voters would be, like, pretty, pretty fair game for, um, your boy Boris in this. But, well, I guess we'll have to get to election day to find out.
00:42:00,492 --> 00:42:14,292 [Brian Golden]
Yeah. That feels right. I mean, this is, you know, this is the most I've thought about this race until this very moment, so, um, I hesitate to make too big of a recommendation. But I think the cause was pretty per- the, the, the argument was persuasive that, that it's at least 50/50.
00:42:15,432 --> 00:42:21,982 [Alex Keeney]
Uh, yeah, that's what you hate about elections though, 'cause they snap shut really fast once the votes start coming in. [upbeat music]
00:42:23,152 --> 00:42:27,872 [Alex Keeney]
All right, uh, joining us from our overseas bureau once again is, uh-
00:42:27,872 --> 00:42:27,982 [Brian Golden]
[laughs]
00:42:27,982 --> 00:42:42,372 [Alex Keeney]
... William Caggiani in London. Uh, William, every time you come on the show, you're dressed spectacularly, and you're on the move, and I'm starting to think if you're just the best-dressed homeless guy in London. Um, do, do you have a mailing address? Do you have a bed?
00:42:44,008 --> 00:42:58,568 [William Kedjanyi]
Um, I will set one up and the good subscribers, um, the good listeners, the good readers of- of Eventual can help me with all of that. But, so it's a pleasure to be here, and may I show you all Big Ben-
00:42:58,568 --> 00:42:59,028 [Alex Keeney]
Oh, please do
00:42:59,028 --> 00:43:05,507 [William Kedjanyi]
... just to end this glory. After a day of complete and utter chaos here in Westminster.
00:43:05,508 --> 00:43:16,108 [Alex Keeney]
Um, well let me- let me remind the American audience why it's complete and utter chaos in Westminster. So, um, uh, is The Guardian a credible publication? I was gonna quote The Guardian for a second here.
00:43:16,108 --> 00:43:21,028 [William Kedjanyi]
Yes, it is. Can you tell me who wrote those art- the article you're gonna quote? I think I might know them.
00:43:21,028 --> 00:43:25,128 [Alex Keeney]
Uh, I don't remember. Am I allowed to not remember?
00:43:25,128 --> 00:43:26,138 [William Kedjanyi]
Okay. You're allowed to not remember.
00:43:26,138 --> 00:43:26,148 [Alex Keeney]
Um.
00:43:26,148 --> 00:43:26,528 [William Kedjanyi]
Keep going.
00:43:26,528 --> 00:43:45,298 [Alex Keeney]
O- okay. But we like to give journalists credit here. I'm actually very upset with myself right now. Um, uh, quote, uh, "Keir Starmer is expected to announce a timetable for his departure on Monday morning, clearing the way for Andy Burnham to become prime minister without a formal contest by autumn." Um, William,
00:43:46,728 --> 00:44:13,288 [Alex Keeney]
the markets have this as, like, game over. The markets have, you know, 97% odds that Andy Burnham is gonna be the next prime minister of the UK. And, like, basically the sentiment is, is the only thing that can stop his coronation is if one of those, like, big red buses runs over him. Um, is- is that- is that fair pricing? Like, are we just kinda there where it's only a matter of time, or is there any card left to play for some opposition figure or someone else who's, like, a hungry ladder cli- climber?
00:44:14,628 --> 00:44:54,618 [William Kedjanyi]
I've always wanted to say this to your audience. They're selling dollars for 99, uh, for 97 cents. Um, yeah, it's over. It's done. Um, Wes Streeting, his biggest rival in stature, backed him earlier today. Um, so that means that Andy Burnham is going to be our next prime minister. And yeah, it's- it's really a done deal. There might be a candidate who runs against him, but nobody in the Labour Party is close to matching that popularity. And the fact he had over 200 members of Parliament join him for a selfie, um, after he'd been sworn in as an MP, um, just sort of tells the whole story. It's- it's over. It's done.
00:44:55,968 --> 00:45:04,028 [Alex Keeney]
Um, so I'm watching another market, and, um, this is whether or not Burnham will run unopposed. Like- like, again, like,
00:45:05,268 --> 00:45:30,648 [Alex Keeney]
is- is there any tradition in the UK? We have a proud tradition in the United States here, where people like Ron Paul and Andrew Yang run races just to prove a point. Like, they know they're gonna lose, but they have some quirky issue that they just wanna express. So, like, I'm in my head modeling, like, should this be 100% but for some great British tradition of, like, pointless campaigns to prove a point? Like, is this a thing that exists there?
00:45:30,648 --> 00:45:42,208 [William Kedjanyi]
Um, political parties have these splits. And to us, you, most- most people tend to like contests in order to test ideas. But
00:45:43,228 --> 00:46:06,328 [William Kedjanyi]
the i- the problem is really, um, contests means infighting at least of some sort. It also means that there's a bit more instability. That's really bad for bond markets, which are, I think something everybody pays much more attention to in the UK now, um, than in past years. And also, when you have somebody such an over- as such an overwhelming favorite,
00:46:07,888 --> 00:46:14,868 [William Kedjanyi]
I think there's a lot of MPs who don't really want to bother nominating somebody else to then be seen on the other side.
00:46:14,868 --> 00:46:14,988 [Alex Keeney]
Right.
00:46:14,988 --> 00:46:51,048 [William Kedjanyi]
Um, so yeah. The... You've had contests in the past, even ones with token, um, opposition rivals, but I think it's just seen as pointless a bit with Andy Burnham, because nobody would beat him, um, and everybody wants to be with him. People want some party unity. Um, Keir Starmer's loyalists are upset at what's happened, but even some of the most ardent of them are understanding of the fact that with him at the helm, the Labour Party is doomed at the next general election. And now they feel that they have a chance.
00:46:51,048 --> 00:47:01,248 [Alex Keeney]
So- so- so are you buying at 80 cents, uh, Burnham unopposed in 2026 Labour leadership contest, or is that too much risk for, uh, for a dapper gentleman such as yourself?
00:47:02,908 --> 00:47:48,928 [William Kedjanyi]
I'm probably buying rather than selling. Uh, yeah, I think I'm probably buying rather than selling. Um, I- I don't, I just don't see who would want, um, who would want to do it knowing that there is no, there's no real benefit to it. Um, it could be seen as a sign of instability itself if it was to be any sort of contest, and it was, uh... I know it's only a short period of time that they put from the NEC, which is, um, sort of like the, um... It's the RNC, the TNC of the Labour Party, um, just to explain. And our sort of national executive committee of the Labour Party has put a very short timetable out. It's designed to have a smooth, orderly transition. It's designed with one- one man in mind. Uh, I buy, basically, essentially.
00:47:48,928 --> 00:48:03,828 [Alex Keeney]
William, let's- let's leave a little meat on the bone. We're gonna have time to talk about Keir Starmer's exit date. Uh, it looks late there. It looks like it's time to, uh, get a pint with the mates or something like that. That's my image of what happens in London, is a lot of getting pints with the mates. Um-
00:48:03,828 --> 00:48:14,967 [William Kedjanyi]
Lots- lots of pints with the mates. Also, I've managed to, uh, grab a motel for the next two nights, and I've got one heatwave night in a hotel, and I'm so, so delighted, so [laughs]
00:48:14,967 --> 00:48:15,907 [Alex Keeney]
[laughs] Enjoy that air conditioning, my friend.
00:48:15,908 --> 00:48:20,268 [William Kedjanyi]
William, is it coming home? Is it coming home? Um-
00:48:20,268 --> 00:48:21,748 [Alex Keeney]
Is it- is it coming home, William?
00:48:23,808 --> 00:48:25,068 [William Kedjanyi]
It can. It can.
00:48:25,068 --> 00:48:25,538 [Alex Keeney]
[laughs]
00:48:25,538 --> 00:48:30,388 [William Kedjanyi]
I feel, I- I feel that it can for the first time, probably after the first round of fixtures.
00:48:30,388 --> 00:48:30,648 [Alex Keeney]
All right.
00:48:30,648 --> 00:48:30,967 [William Kedjanyi]
Okay.
00:48:30,968 --> 00:48:33,628 [Alex Keeney]
All right. Thanks for joining, William.
00:48:33,628 --> 00:48:34,868 [William Kedjanyi]
Pleasure as always.
00:48:34,868 --> 00:48:46,788 [Alex Keeney]
All right, Brian, I think to close the show out, uh, speaking of things that are coming home, uh, you wanted to offer our audience a world-class prediction on the FIFA World Cup. Uh, what do you, what do you got in your bag of goodies there?
00:48:47,896 --> 00:48:51,836 [Brian Golden]
All right, we're- this is the exotic of the week. Um-
00:48:51,836 --> 00:48:55,175 [Alex Keeney]
Exotic. We got, we got Brian exotic here?
00:48:55,176 --> 00:49:04,856 [Brian Golden]
Yeah. I was j- I was just in Vegas, so, um, exotic it is. So there's a market on, um, can I say Kalshi?
00:49:04,856 --> 00:49:09,536 [Alex Keeney]
Yeah, yeah, yeah. We're, we're editorial independent here. Our sponsors don't tell us what to cover.
00:49:09,536 --> 00:49:27,056 [Brian Golden]
All right. There's a market on Kalshi for how many group winners in the World Cup will win their first knockout round game. So let me give you a l- a little context here. The World Cup is 48 teams, 12 groups of four. Each group of four plays a round robin, and then
00:49:28,196 --> 00:49:40,776 [Brian Golden]
32 of the 48 teams make the knockout rounds. There are 12 group winners, 12 second places, eight third places, for 32 total. So the question at hand is how many of the 12 will win their
00:49:41,816 --> 00:49:52,276 [Brian Golden]
first round group, first knockout round game? I'm gonna give you a second to think about what the, your answer is, and then I'm gonna tell you what I think the answer is.
00:49:52,276 --> 00:49:53,736 [Alex Keeney]
Wait, I only get one second?
00:49:54,796 --> 00:49:56,156 [Brian Golden]
Uh, yeah, one second.
00:49:56,156 --> 00:50:00,816 [Alex Keeney]
Would it, would it, it wouldn't matter if it was an hour. Uh, let's say 20. That's a great number, 20.
00:50:00,816 --> 00:50:05,476 [Brian Golden]
20 [laughs] 20 out of 12. Well, you know, you can get that at a really, really cheap price.
00:50:05,476 --> 00:50:05,876 [Alex Keeney]
That's why-
00:50:05,876 --> 00:50:05,896 [Brian Golden]
Um-
00:50:05,896 --> 00:50:08,116 [Alex Keeney]
That's why you trade macroeconomics and not me, buddy.
00:50:08,116 --> 00:50:10,056 [Brian Golden]
[laughs] Yeah. Um, so-
00:50:10,056 --> 00:50:12,256 [Alex Keeney]
Uh, let's go eight. Let's go eight.
00:50:12,256 --> 00:50:16,466 [Brian Golden]
Yeah. The market started at eight. The market started as a median of eight. I think it's too low.
00:50:16,466 --> 00:50:16,496 [Alex Keeney]
Yeah.
00:50:16,496 --> 00:50:18,236 [Brian Golden]
I think it's gonna be higher than that.
00:50:18,236 --> 00:50:18,516 [Alex Keeney]
Yeah.
00:50:18,516 --> 00:51:26,696 [Brian Golden]
Um, if you look at the last five World Cups, the first, the group winners have won their first knockout round 85% of the time. They're 34 and six against second-place teams in the knockout, first knockout round. And as I said, this year they're not only playing second-place teams, they're playing third-place teams. So they're playing teams this year that in past World Cups would've barely even made the World cup at all. They'd be like the 24th to 32nd ranked teams in the World Cup, which would've been borderline qualifiers in the past. So you're gonna have teams in this first knockout round like Argentina, Spain, Brazil, playing heavy hitters like Cape Verde, Bosnia. Um, no disrespect to Bosnia. It, it's gonna be lopsided. It's gonna be really lopsided, and even if you go by the past historical numbers, you arrive at a, at least nine on average, and maybe 10. But this year I think the first round is gonna be so lopsided, I, I really think 10 and two, maybe even 11 and one is doable for the group winners, and that's some stuff you can get on Kalshi right now for like 25 cents.
00:51:26,696 --> 00:51:27,146 [Alex Keeney]
Well, you can get-
00:51:27,146 --> 00:51:33,356 [Brian Golden]
You can get first round group... Yeah, you can get group winners going 11 and one or better for like 12 cents. I think this is
00:51:34,456 --> 00:51:42,136 [Brian Golden]
an amazing bet. I really think that 10 and two or better should be favored here and, and you can get something that I think should be favored for like
00:51:43,356 --> 00:51:53,495 [Brian Golden]
25, 30 cents. Um, that's a, that's a huge buy for me. I think people are way overestimating how dominant the powerhouses are gonna be in their first knockout game.
00:51:53,496 --> 00:51:55,396 [Alex Keeney]
Can, can, can we embrace debate for a second here?
00:51:56,496 --> 00:51:57,676 [Brian Golden]
Yeah, let's do it.
00:51:57,676 --> 00:52:39,956 [Alex Keeney]
Okay. Well, I was alive... I, listen, I am so old that I remember when diversity was our strength, and, uh, when, when like systemic oppression kept talented people and institutions out of the champions circle. And I remember when like Moonlight beat La La Land, and by the way, that was the right thing. Like Moonlight should have won that Oscar. That was a fantastic seminal movie. You know, I, uh, I, like the Oscars now are dominated by art house, you know, cinema versus Goliaths. So like why, why can't diversity be our strength here? Why, like why can't Bosnia win? Maybe, maybe you need to check your privilege and, and think about your own biases here.
00:52:39,956 --> 00:53:01,446 [Brian Golden]
That... You're, you're right. You're right. And I'm just gonna hang up and listen to the community and try to learn something. Um, these bigger countries, they don't just have more money, they don't just have more people, but a lot of them have colonial histories. And so you have a lot of people who like actually could play for, let's say, um-
00:53:01,446 --> 00:53:03,416 [Alex Keeney]
Your Kylian Mbappé. You know, like-
00:53:03,416 --> 00:53:03,976 [Brian Golden]
Yeah, yeah
00:53:03,976 --> 00:53:04,016 [Alex Keeney]
... yeah
00:53:04,016 --> 00:53:10,856 [Brian Golden]
Like who could play for an African country, but have also through FIFA rules then they go and play for France.
00:53:10,856 --> 00:53:10,916 [Alex Keeney]
Yeah.
00:53:10,916 --> 00:53:20,846 [Brian Golden]
So they like end up hoovering up some of the smaller countries' best talent anyway. I mean, the Dutch are absolutely the worst at this. There's nobody on that team with, you know, who actually-
00:53:20,846 --> 00:53:22,915 [Alex Keeney]
They do not look very Dutch. Like they do not wear-
00:53:22,916 --> 00:53:23,576 [Brian Golden]
Who won a race yesterday
00:53:23,576 --> 00:53:24,996 [Alex Keeney]
... clogs on the weekend. Yeah.
00:53:24,996 --> 00:53:37,856 [Brian Golden]
Yeah. Um, so you know, that's all to say that the advantages for the big powers are dramatic and, um, just, you know, historically when, you know,
00:53:38,996 --> 00:53:48,176 [Brian Golden]
rubber meets the road, the Argentinas and the Spains and the Germanys of the world stomp ass on the countries that they'll be playing in the, the first knockout round here.
00:53:48,176 --> 00:53:55,216 [Alex Keeney]
So, um, I'm gonna close out too with one... I, I don't think this is an exotic. I think this is like verging into bond market status. But, um-
00:53:55,216 --> 00:53:55,226 [Brian Golden]
Okay
00:53:55,226 --> 00:53:55,396 [Alex Keeney]
... uh,
00:53:56,696 --> 00:54:12,586 [Alex Keeney]
on Polymarket there are still shares. Kal- Kalshi's getting kinda maxed out towards 99, but, um, the House and the Senate have agreed to some housing bill that's like way too boring for me to even read. We actually have a, a good reporter booked on this for Wednesday, but I, I think this is gonna be over by Wednesday.
00:54:12,586 --> 00:54:12,656 [Brian Golden]
Okay.
00:54:12,656 --> 00:54:45,876 [Alex Keeney]
Um, House and Senate have agreed. Uh, House is gonna call it up on suspension, which means they can count on Democratic votes to pass it. Like this is just purely a will Donald Trump, you know, eat a Big Mac that he's not satisfied with and rage tweet against this bill? It's like the only thing that can stop it, but I, I... The White House has been involved with getting it fixed, so I'll, I'll close the show on this. I think, I think that might be, I think that might be like bond-worthy. I don't know if it's like, you know, USA credit securities. Maybe it's like France level bond. But, um, that's what I'm gonna be thinking about.
00:54:45,876 --> 00:54:51,956 [Brian Golden]
Isn't there always though, like at least a 3% chance that Trump eats a Big Mac he doesn't like and just cancels everything? Like-
00:54:51,956 --> 00:54:57,116 [Alex Keeney]
That's true. That's true. That's true. Um, but he's gotta eat it in about the next two days.
00:54:58,636 --> 00:54:59,756 [Brian Golden]
He'll manage.
00:54:59,756 --> 00:55:01,656 [Alex Keeney]
Yeah, he'll, he'll find a way. [laughs]
00:55:01,656 --> 00:55:02,876 [Brian Golden]
[laughs] All right.
00:55:02,876 --> 00:55:02,896 [Alex Keeney]
Um-
00:55:02,896 --> 00:55:11,776 [Brian Golden]
That sounds good. I can get behind. I like a short-term bond. You turn around one percents in 48 hours, you know, you can, you can roll that portfolio value up in a hurry.
00:55:11,776 --> 00:55:14,855 [Alex Keeney]
Yeah, yeah, yeah. You just better hope that Trump doesn't eat that Big Mac.
00:55:14,855 --> 00:55:15,696 [Brian Golden]
[laughs] Right.
00:55:15,696 --> 00:55:24,336 [Alex Keeney]
Um, all right. Well, Brian, it was great to have you, and, uh, we'll be seeing a lot of each other on the Eventual show in the coming weeks. Uh, thanks for joining.
00:55:24,336 --> 00:55:26,516 [Brian Golden]
Yeah, man. It was real. We'll talk soon.
00:55:26,516 --> 00:55:27,816 [Alex Keeney]
All right. Later.
00:55:27,816 --> 00:55:28,376 [Brian Golden]
Bye.
00:55:30,636 --> 00:55:48,396 [Alex Keeney]
All right, and that's our show. I'm your host, Alex Keeney. This show was produced by Alex Asdourian with help from Matt Tallese, our head of design. For Eventual, I'm Alex Keeney. Check out all of our other offerings on eventual.news, and please sign up for our newsletter on Substack. Thank you.